The first post-monsoon cyclonic storm is expected to form over the west-central Bay of Bengal around the weekend and will impact the coasts of north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and West Bengal, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The cyclone will be named Sitrang once it has formed.
According to Ananda Kumar Das, head of IMD’s cyclone monitoring division, cyclones in the post-monsoon season have been more severe than those in the pre-monsoon season over the last 20 years. “So, we are expecting this system also to intensify further.”
A low-pressure area was expected to form over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal, then move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over the Central Bay of Bengal by Saturday morning. According to IMD, it was very likely to intensify into a cyclone over the westcentral Bay of Bengal later.
Das stated that there is currently a lot of disagreement among models regarding the location of the cyclone. “…but most of them are indicating that the location is likely to be between north Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal coasts. It is expected to make landfall on October 25 [Tuesday] but as of today [Tuesday] we are not forecasting any location for landfall because the system has not developed yet.”
Das stated that the atmospheric and oceanic conditions were favourable for the development of cyclones. “The Bay’s sea surface temperature is also higher than usual.” Furthermore, from October 22 to 25, this system will be moving over the ocean, which can provide it with a lot of energy.”
Separately, conditions were expected to improve for further monsoon withdrawal from more parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, interior Odisha, and the entire West Bengal, while isolated heavy rainfall was expected to continue in some parts of the south Peninsular this week.