Maharashtra currently has a Mahayuti government led by Eknath Shinde. The ruling Mahayuti includes Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). There are a total of 9 crore 63 lakh voters in Maharashtra. All 288 seats in The state will go to polls in a single phase for all 288 assembly seats. Voting will take place in November 20 and counting will be done on November 23.
Muslim
12 per cent of the population in Maharashtra is Muslim. The number of Muslim voters in 38 seats here is around 20 percent. Muslims are considered influential in 45 seats of North Konkan, Marathwada, Mumbai Thane belt and Western Vidarbha. Mood of Muslim voters will be in favour of Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi win.
Madhav
The BJP-led Mahayuti has its traditional Mali-Dhangar-Vanjari (Madhav) while the biggest electoral weapon of the Congress and its allies is Dalit, Dhangar Maratha-Muslim and Kunbi (DMK).
Vidarbha Perception
It’s also well established fact that the party that the Vidarbha region supports in the assembly elections comes closer to power. Vidarbha region has 10 Lok Sabha and 62 assembly seats. In vidharbha region fight is between the two national parties Congress and BJP.
Maratha
The Maratha community which accounts for about 30% of Maharashtra’s population has been playing a major role in the state’s politics. Maratha leaders of both alliances will face off in Marathwada. Eknath Shinde will face a challenge from Sharad Pawar. Maratha voters are going to be very crucial factor in the upcoming election of Maharashtra.
Caste combination
The Maratha community has a population of 30 percent, Dalits are 12 percent and Muslims are around 13 percent. The OBC population is between 38 and 40 per cent and is divided into different castes. The Brahmin community in Maharashtra has a population of 6 to 8 per cent.
Mali
The Mali community, which is involved in agriculture and horticulture, is around 7-8% of the state’s population. It is particularly dominant in Western Maharashtra and Marathwada. The Dhangar community – which has a background in animal husbandry – is also significant in the state.
Vanjari
Their population of Vanjari community is around 9-12%. They are demanding ST status. The Vanjari community is involved in trade and agriculture. This community is spread across different parts of the state and is politically conscious.
Anti-incumbency vs Pro-incumbency
Mahayuti is claiming that there is Pro-incumbency in Maharashtra. At the same time, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) claims that there is an atmosphere against the government.
Laadli Behna and Cash
Laadli behna scheme is going to have impact on crores of women voters on Maharashtra. Financial assistance is given to eligible women under this scheme. More than 2.4 crore eligible women have received five months’ installment recently. Financial condition of Maharashtra is not sound. The state’s debt is around Rs 7.8 lakh crore while fiscal deficit is projected to be Rs 2 lakh crore.
Magic figure of 145 is needed to form the government. There are important factors in Maharashtra which are going to be very crucial for all political parties.
Prof. Dr. Vivek Singh, is an eminent political analyst, economist and columnist.