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Exit polls predict tight race in several states

The exit polls result for all the five states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram — have been declared by several media outlets. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll and Jan Ki Baat exit poll has predicted a neck-and-neck fight between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Chhattisgarh and […]

The exit polls result for all the five states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram — have been declared by several media outlets. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll and Jan Ki Baat exit poll has predicted a neck-and-neck fight between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The voting in these states were held between November 7 and November 30. The results for the five assembly elections will be declared on Sunday, December 3.

What is assembly election exit poll?
A survey agency tries to gauge the likely result of an election through an exit poll. Voters are asked, after they exit the polling station who they voted for, hence this is called an ‘exit poll’.

Exit poll is a survey that is conducted immediately after people have voted their respective candidates. The exit polls are likely to give indications of the assembly outcomes, a crucial indicator of India’s mood for the upcoming general assembly elections in 2024.

How accurate is assembly election exit poll?
There have been several instances in the past of exit polls going wrong. This is because people could name a candidate other than the one they actually voted for. Conducted after the polling, exit polls aim to predict election outcomes by questioning voters about their choices as they exit polling stations, offering crucial insights into the public sentiment before the official results are announced.

In Madhya Pradesh, which witnessed a 77.15% voter turnout across 230 seats, the exit polls may hint at the electorate’s mood as they decide among 2,533 candidates. The state showcased a head-to-head clash between the BJP, led by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and the Congress, relying on former CM Kamal Nath’s leadership.

Chhattisgarh, with a voter turnout of 76.31%, displayed a marginal decrease compared to the previous election. Mizoram, recording a 78.40% turnout in 40 constituencies, foresees a tight race between the Mizo National Front (MNF) and the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM).

Rajasthan’s 75.45% voter turnout in 199 assembly constituencies sets the stage for a contest between the Congress and the BJP, aiming to alter the historical pattern of alternating power between the two parties.

Telangana, seeing a 63.94% turnout in its 119 assembly seats, had notable leaders, including Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao, actively participating in the elections. The state had the TRS securing 88 seats in 2018, dominating with a 47.4% vote share.

The counting of votes across these states is scheduled for December 3, heralding a period of heightened anticipation as the exit polls provide a glimpse into potential outcomes, although their accuracy remains debated due to discrepancies observed in past instances.

The intense campaign phase witnessed leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi engaging in extensive rallies, highlighting party promises and agendas ranging from welfare schemes to regional development initiatives.

As the nation waits for the official results, the exit polls serve as a barometer of public sentiment, indicating potential trends that might shape the political landscape ahead of the general assembly elections in 2024.

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