Finally, it is curtains on one of the longest election calendars drawn up by the Election Commission of India where five states went to the polls—West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry.
It was an action-packed election season no less than the IPL with all the high action drama, the twists and turns that embellished the festival of democracy. At the fag-end of the eighth phase of Bengal elections, one felt exhausted, what with India going through one of the worst ever health crises in two centuries, the mood however in these election-states is palpable.
This newspaper’s sister channel, India News, along with Jan-Ki-Baat which carried out one of the most exhaustive exit polls spanning over 60 days, suggests a clear mandate for the Bharatiya Janata Party in three states—West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry, while after two successive terms of AIADMK, the M.K. Stalin-led DMK will claim stake to form government in Tamil Nadu. Kerala continues to be under wraps and the suspense will be over this Sunday when the results are declared as UDF and LDF are equally pitted.
Pradeep Bhandari, CEO and founder of Jan-Ki-Baat, who led the survey with over 150 researchers with one of the largest sample sizes, as opposed to other surveys, also had a long questionnaire that throws up a massive data that facilitates a deeper and wider public perception and pulse of the voter in the five states.
In West Bengal, the exit polls suggest that the BJP will get anywhere between 162-185 seats, the TMC will end up with 121-104 seats, while Sanjukta Morcha with Congress and Left anywhere between 3 to 9 seats. However, the vote share between the two leading parties in the state with BJP at 46-48% and TMC 44-45% is intriguing as only a few percentages are making the gap wider by 50 to 70 seats.
In Tamil Nadu, it is “son-rise” time as M.K. Stalin, who has been waiting in the wings for three decades, is finally going to wear the mantle of the top post. The exit poll says DMK will get 130 to 110 seats, while BJP allied AIADMK is expected to get 102-123, which many say is not a bad number to land given the fact that it was battling anti-incumbency in the absence of their supreme leader J. Jayalalithaa, who passed away in early 2017.
It is another disappointing outcome at the hustings for Kamal Haasan, who might be the only winner from his political outfit MNM. In the Dravidian state, the exit poll isn’t giving a major difference in vote share. While DMK plus Congress gets 43-41%, the AIADMK and BJP combine is clocking 42.5-39.75%, which would be some kind of consolation for both who were heavily invested in this election.
In Assam, the BJP is expected to retain its government even though political pundits had said the NDA will face blowback in the face of anti-CAA and NRC protests. Of the total seats of 126, the exit poll has given the NDA 70-81 seats while the UPA is expected to get 55-45. While the exit poll gives a clear mandate to the BJP, who the next Chief Minister of Assam will be is interesting to watch out for as Himanta Biswa Sarma will play a pivotal role in the power game. If the BJP returns to power in Assam, it will be largely because of Himanta Biswa Sarma.
The suspense over Kerala continues to remain as the India News-Jan-Ki-Baat poll has given numbers that suggest that it might be anybody’s day this Sunday. While the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF is expected to get anywhere between 64 and 76 seats, the Congress-led UDF is also looking at 71-61 seats, and the NDA at 2-4 seats. Political observers say it might be the Rahul Gandhi moment in God’s Own Country as crowds swelled wherever he held rallies. Rahul represents Wayanad parliamentary constituency, which has become his second home he was defeated in Amethi.
In Puducherry, the NDA is expected to make history by staking claim to form government, making it the only other state (read union territory) where it has expanded its footprints after Karnataka in South India. While the NDA is expected to get anywhere between 19-24 seats, UPA will get 11-6 seats according to the survey.
EXIT POLLS: WEST BENGAL
Total Seats: 294
PROJECTED SEAT SHARE
Range
Bjp 162-185
Tmc 121-104
Sanjukta Morcha 9-3
Ind 0
Oth 0
EXIT POLLS: WEST BENGAL
Total Seats: 294
PROJECTED SEAT SHARE
Range
Bjp 162-185
Tmc 121-104
Sanjukta Morcha 9-3
Ind 0
Oth 0
Total Seats: 126
Projected Seat Share
Range Nda: 70-81
Upa: 55-45
Oth: 1-0 (Raizor Dal)
Projected Vote Share Range (%)
Bjp: 32-33
Agp: 7-7.5
Uppl: 2-2.5
Nda Total: 41-42
Inc: 30.5-31
Upa Total: 40.5-41.5
EXIT POLLS: PUDUCHERRY
Total Seats: 33
Projected Seat Share
Range Nda: 19-24
Upa: 11-6
Oth: 0
Projected Vote Share Range (%)
Nda: 48-53
Upa 37-28
Oth 15-19
EXIT POLLS: TAMIL NADU
Total Seats: 234
Projected Seat Share
Dmk 130-110
Aiadmk 102-123
Others 2 -1
Projected Vote Share (%)
Dmk+ 43-41
Aiadmk+ 42.5-39.75
Mnm 3-4.5
Ammk 3-4.5
Ntk 7-8.5
Others 1.5-2.25
EXIT POLLS: KERALA
Total Seats: 140
Projected Seat Share Range
Ldf: 64-76
Udf: 71-61
Nda: 4-2
Projected Vote Share Range (%)
Ldf: 40.5-43
Udf: 40-38
Nda: 15-18
Oth: 4.5-1