Romania is attempting again to vote in a new president, half a year since the initial effort was marred by scandal and confusion.
The first place in 24 November went to a radical outsider who has mystical leanings, Calin Georgescu, but that victory was invalidated on suspicion of campaign manipulation and Russian involvement.
US Vice President JD Vance strongly criticised Romania in February over that decision, sending shockwaves through a Romanian political establishment that relies so much on its special relationship with the US. Georgescu was still prevented from participating in today’s rerun.
Nationalist vs Centrists in High-Stakes Elections in Romania
It is a matchup between a nationalist, George Simion, of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and three centrists: the well-liked mayor of Bucharest Nicusor Dan; Crin Antonescu, a liberal of the ruling Social-Democrat and National Liberal coalition; and Elena Lasconi, an independent.
Seven other contenders are on the ballot. In the event of no one gaining more than 50% of the vote, a run-off between the two top candidates will take place on 18 May.
“This election is not about one candidate or another, but about every Romanian who has been lied to, ignored, humiliated, and still has the strength to believe and defend our identity and rights,” Simion posted on X on Friday.
Opinion polls – notoriously inaccurate in Romania – indicate that he will be first today, then will have a difficult fight with either Nicusor Dan or Crin Antonescu in the run-off.
Global Stakes: Ukraine, NATO and U.S. Ties
The outcome is anxiously awaited in European capitals, Washington, Moscow and Kyiv. Romania is a key transit country for weapons systems and ammunition to Ukraine. It possesses a US missile defense shield at Deveselu, and three large airbases from which Nato conducts air policing missions up to the Ukraine-Moldova border, and out over the Black Sea.
Ukraine ships 70% of its grain along the Black Sea coast, via Romanian territorial waters, to Istanbul. Romania’s navy mines out those waters, and Romanian air force trains Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s. The Trump administration is reconsidering its relationship with Romania. A visa-waiver pact was suddenly cancelled on the eve of the election.
“Forget about any more help to Ukraine if Simion becomes president,” says George Scutaru, a security expert at the New Strategy Center in Bucharest. As head of the National Security Council, the president can veto any decision, and has a strong influence on security policy. But Scutaru expresses “prudent optimism” that one of the centrists will win the run-off.
Public anger at Romanian funding of Ukrainian refugees is a mainstay of Simion’s campaign, although he insists that he is not pro-Russian.
Public Mood and Diaspora Influence in Romania
Crowds of tourists throng the gardens of the Cotroceni Palace, the presidency in the west of Bucharest, on a boiling hot May afternoon. The decision of interim President Ilie Bolojan to throw open the buildings and gardens to the public is extremely popular among the tourists.
White and purple irises edge the walks under flowering horse chestnuts. A marching band of soldiers passes through flowerbeds of pansies and violets. The palace is a former monastery, rebuilt in the 17th century, which housed the Romanian royal family in the 19th century.
“I can’t really imagine Simion in here…” Ionut, a satirical writer, tells me beside an ornate waterfall, looking up at the palace walls. He voted for Simion in the first round of the election last November, out of anger at the constant delays to Romania’s full membership of the Schengen free-travel zone. And frustration with Romania’s outgoing president, Klaus Iohannis.
But Romania did at last join the Schengen land-borders on 1 January, and Iohannis took a step back the same month. “Romanians are less angry now,” he thinks. He said he is going to vote for Nicusor Dan in this election, but hasn’t decided quite yet.
Ana, a management consultant, walking with her family through the palace gardens, also supports Nicusor Dan. “I want to vote for both continuity and change,” she says. “Continuity in Romania’s relationship with Europe, but change as far as corruption is concerned. We young people don’t relate to the old parties any more,” – something Nicusor Dan has in common with Simion.
Numerous of Romania’s huge diaspora – a million are enrolled to vote – have voted already, particularly in Spain, Italy, Germany and the UK. They do not appear in opinion surveys, and can easily tip the ultimate outcome.
