Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski stood poised for a hairline victory in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday in an exit poll, marking a deep divide between a pro-European perspective and climbing nationalist fervor inspired by Donald Trump.
The Ipsos exit poll conducted for broadcasters TVN, TVP, and Polsat placed Trzaskowski, candidate of the ruling centrist Civic Coalition (KO), narrowly in front with 50.3% of support. His challenger, conservative historian and part-time boxer Karol Nawrocki, was supported by the rightist Law and Justice party (PiS) and was well behind on 49.7%. Official announcements were due on Monday, with partial returns and exit poll results expected overnight. The poll’s margin of error was two percentage points.
Trzaskowski, 53, ran on finishing democratic reforms with Prime Minister Donald Tusk, promising to restore a balance of powers eroded during the past nationalist government’s rule. “We won,” Trzaskowski told the faithful after exiting polls were published. “I will unite people and be president for all Poles.”
While the presidency of Poland has limited authority relative to parliament, the position does come with the veto privileges that render the result of the election both nationally and internationally significant. Neighboring nations such as Ukraine, Russia, the US, and the European Union all monitored the election closely, particularly since Poland continues to be a critical NATO ally in the presence of the ongoing Russian conflict.
They concurred on the need to bolster defense and assist Ukraine, but they sharply diverged over the future of NATO. Trzaskowski favors Ukrainian membership in the alliance as crucial to Poland’s security, whereas Nawrocki is against ratification, speculating that it might plunge the alliance into war with Russia.
Nawrocki, emboldened by Trump’s MAGA campaign, refused to give up, promising to “save Poland” from what he labeled a monopolization of power by Tusk’s side. “We will win,” he declared.
The election outcome will shape Poland’s political direction amid growing tensions between European integration and nationalist populism.
