Karol Nawrocki Narrowly Defeats Rafal Trzaskowski in Polarized Polish Vote

Conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki has narrowly won Poland’s 2025 presidential election, defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski with 50.89% of the vote to 49.11%. Backed by Donald Trump and the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, Nawrocki’s win signals a shift toward traditional values and national sovereignty. The result also shows Poland’s deep divide between conservative nationalism and progressive liberalism.

This outcome may complicate PM Donald Tusk’s reform plans, especially due to the president’s veto powers. Nawrocki supports closer ties with the United States but remains cautious about deeper EU integration. His presidency could, therefore, increase political polarization and add pressure to Poland’s already divided landscape.

Narrow Victory Reflects Deep Divisions

The election outcome reflects Poland’s stark political divisions. Karol  Nawrocki, 42, is a historian and former head of the National Remembrance Institute. He focused on traditional values and national autonomy.

His liberal, pro-European alternative was offered by Trzaskowski. The narrow win reflects a country divided between conservative nationalism and progressive liberalism.

Implications for Poland’s Government

While the Polish presidency is mostly ceremonial, it does have strong veto powers regarding laws. Nawrocki’s win is problematic for PM Donald Tusk’s coalition government, which does not have parliamentary majority to veto-bust presidential vetoes.

This may slow down the ability of the government to pass reforms regarding abortion rights and the independence of courts.

International Reactions and Foreign Policy Outlook

Nawrocki’s victory has evoked mixed reactions worldwide. EU leaders have been cautiously optimistic, while hard-line figures such as Trump and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán have come out strongly in support. Nawrocki committed to further support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression but was lukewarm about deeper integration into the EU. His presidency can potentially guide Poland toward greater ties with the US and a more nationalist approach in the EU.

Nawrocki will take office in August 2025, succeeding conservative President Andrzej Duda. His government is likely to focus on traditional values and national sovereignty, which could have implications for Poland’s domestic policy and foreign relations. The close election result is an indication of the country’s political polarization and portends possible difficulties in governance and policy enactment.