US defense expert Tyler Rogoway has issued urgent warnings in response to Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes on five Russian airbases this week, which are said to have destroyed nearly a third of Russia’s fleet of nuclear-capable bombers. He thinks there are serious weaknesses in the US military’s readiness and that a similar attack might occur on American soil or its overseas bases.
Tyler Rogoway claims that America’s most valuable aircraft are at risk due to a variety of factors, including the absence of hardened shelters, disregard for warnings in war game simulations, and worries that unidentified flying objects (UFOs) might be foreign spy drones. “Ukraine’s strike is a wake-up call for US leadership to take drone warfare seriously before it’s too late,” he says.
Ukraine Strikes Deep into Russia
On Monday, Ukrainian drones struck airbases as far as 4,000 kilometers away inside Russia. Ukrainian officials say they destroyed 41 nuclear-capable Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers. They also reportedly took out a rare A-50 AEWAC surveillance plane. This marks one of the most successful long-range drone assaults ever.
‘This Could Happen in the US Tomorrow’
Tyler Rogoway, Editor-in-Chief of The War Zone, called the event “pivotal.” In posts on X, he said, “Our most prized aircraft are sitting ducks.” He warned that US leaders cannot continue to ignore the threat of low-cost drones attacking exposed aircraft, either abroad or at home.
For over a decade I have outlined the exact scenario as we just saw in Russia. It could happen in the U.S. tomorrow. This was a pivotal event. US military and political leadership cannot live in partial denial of this threat anymore. Our most prized aircraft are sitting ducks.
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) June 1, 2025
He stressed that US airbases, including those overseas, lack hardened shelters. These shelters can protect valuable aircraft from sudden aerial attacks. Tyler Rogoway also highlighted how the US built just 22 such shelters recently, while China built over 400.
Simulated War Games Already Predicted Losses
In 2023, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ran a war game scenario. It found that in a Taiwan conflict, most US aircraft would be destroyed on the ground. These findings match exactly what just happened in Russia.
‘UFOs’ May Be Enemy Spy Drones
Tyler Rogoway added another sharp warning. He suggested many recent UFO sightings around US military bases are likely foreign drones. In a 2021 article, he argued these craft are not alien, but surveillance platforms collecting sensitive data. They use cheap but clever technology to spy on America’s defenses.
According to Rogoway, Ukraine’s strike destroyed more than just planes. It hit a core part of Russia’s nuclear deterrent. He called it a global wake-up call. As drone warfare evolves, the US must stop underestimating the threat — or risk a devastating surprise.
