Southern Europe Faces Disproportionate Risk from Rising Temperatures
Heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century, with southern European countries like Italy, Greece, and Spain expected to bear the brunt, according to a study published in ‘The Lancet Public Health’. The research warns that while cold weather currently causes more deaths than heat in Europe, the rising temperatures due to climate change could lead to a significant increase in heat-related fatalities.
Climate Change Poses “Unprecedented Challenges” to Public Health
The study suggests that if global temperatures rise by a catastrophic 3°C to 4°C above preindustrial levels, the number of deaths from heat will far exceed any reduction in deaths from cold. This scenario could present “unprecedented challenges” for public health systems, particularly during heatwaves, according to co-author David García-León from the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission.
“Many more heat-related deaths are expected as the climate warms and populations age, while deaths from cold decline only slightly,” García-León said. The study projects that if temperatures rise to 3°C above preindustrial levels, heat could claim 129,000 lives annually, up from the current 44,000 heat-related deaths per year. Even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, the combined death toll from heat and cold could rise from 407,000 today to 450,000 by 2100.
Challenging Climate Deniers and Highlighting Broader Impacts
The study’s findings counter arguments from climate change deniers who claim that global warming could benefit society by reducing cold-related deaths. In Europe—the coolest inhabited continent—the number of deaths due to heat is expected to outweigh any lives saved by milder winters. Countries across other continents, including Asia, Africa, and the Americas, are already experiencing even deadlier temperatures.
“This research is a stark reminder of the number of lives we are putting at risk if we fail to act quickly enough against climate change,” said Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at the health research charity Wellcome, who was not involved in the study. She also noted that the projected increase in heat-related deaths is only part of the picture, as extreme heat can also lead to miscarriages, mental health issues, and indirect impacts like crop failures and economic damage.
Targeted Adaptation Efforts Needed to Prevent Worst-Case Scenarios
The researchers modeled data from 854 cities to estimate the impact of hot and cold temperatures across Europe. They found that heat-related deaths would rise across the continent, with the highest increases in southern European countries and parts of France. If global temperatures rise by 3°C, the death toll from extreme temperatures could increase by 13.5%, leading to 55,000 additional deaths, with most victims being older than 85.
Experts have praised the study for its high-quality analysis, though they caution that predicting temperature-related deaths is complex and involves uncertainties. For example, some studies suggest that improved healthcare and infrastructure could mitigate the impact of rising temperatures on mortality.
The researchers emphasized the need for governments to adopt policies to reduce death tolls, such as investing in healthcare, creating heat action plans, and improving building insulation. They also stressed that the projected rise in deaths is driven by changes in Europe’s population structure and climate, making it crucial to address greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst-case scenarios.
To adapt effectively, the study suggests focusing on regions with high unemployment, poverty, economic changes, emigration, and ageing populations, as these areas are less equipped to handle the increasing risks posed by climate change.