The doomsayers have spoken. Three weeks of India going through one of its worst health crises ever, faced with a once-in-a-century pandemic and they have started writing the end of the India story. Many see India losing its global standing, its regional standing, with its image dented and the back of its economy broken as it fails to counter the growing influence of China in the neighbourhood. The rest of the predictions go like—the focus on Indo-Pacific will be a non-starter, as US and European Union will continue to have their trade relations with China; and since India has been badly battered, it may not even have the resources to be at the core of the Quad’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Needless to say, much of this commentary is emanating from China, which—according to media reports—while claiming to be by India’s side, has been gloating over India’s troubles. And as it happens with India and Indians, for every such narrative being spun from either China or internationally, it is being amplified by interests who would like to see India fail if that means a failure of the present political dispensation.
It’s a different matter that India is too big and too resilient for it to cease to matter globally. The world will be at peril if India with its 1.3 billion population fails. But the pictures of doom and gloom that are being transmitted across the globe have the definite purpose of showing India in a poor light as an investment destination and as a strategic partner of the western world. But then, if India was a spent power and the Quad a non-starter, why are Chinese diplomats going around arm-twisting a small country like Bangladesh warning it against “joining” the Quad? Why is China nervous if it was so secure in the knowledge that with the fulcrum of Quad—India—melting away, its competition for an alternative supply chain has dissolved? The reality is, no one knows it better than China that India may be going through a terrible crisis, and China may be cutting deals with the West, but that is not stopping world powers from converging on the Indo-Pacific. This is happening because they recognize the malign nature of China, a manifestation of which is the pandemic coursing its way through the globe. India may be bearing the brunt of the second wave, but now other countries—including Taiwan, which was believed to have managed the pandemic—too are witnessing a rise in cases. But nothing seems t be happening in China. Serious questions are being raised about the nature of the virus, including the reference to the documents with the US State Department that say that Chinese military scientists allegedly were talking in 2015 about militarising the SARS coronaviruses.
Several questions exist about the exact nature of the virus, and how it was allowed to spread across the globe by sending out people internationally from China, even though domestic travel was banned. But until now no serious attempt has been made to hold China accountable for what it has done to the world. Amidst this, the World Health Organization has been whitewashing China’s role as the originator and spreader of the virus. But if that has not stopped the powers that matter from converging on the Indo-Pacific, it’s because the civilized world realizes that China, if left unchecked, can be a serious threat to them. Of course, only time will tell if economic ties with China can be decoupled from security interests. Amidst this, the mistake that the Chinese have made is underestimating India, which may be down, but is anything but out. Even in the middle of the pandemic India sent out a strong message to China by not allowing any Chinese companies to participate in the 5G trials. Losing India’s billion-plus market and India’s meta-data would have dealt a body blow to China. India needs to get its act together in many areas, but it has the capacity to make China pay. And that is what worries China.