The great political strategist for Mamata Banerjee has scored a self-goal because of the propensity of the truth to come out in different ways. There is nothing off record in any briefing today, whether you are talking to pliant, critical or neutral media. The boss—in this case Mamata Banerjee—would have come to know of what was said anyway. But the crucial question is: Why did Prashant Kishor do this?
Kishor has not doubted the authenticity of the leaked chat although some people have demanded the release of the entire chat. He has asked why the BJP is trusting the leaked Clubhouse interaction, in which he spoke to some mediapersons, and not their own leaders who have asserted that the party would win a minimum of 200 Assembly seats.
When such comments come from a person who has gained expertise as a political strategist and has been working overtime to ensure a victory for Mamata, any political party would take this as an endorsement of their calculations. When your critics turn into admirers, you are bound to take it as an endorsement. But the intention behind this interaction may go farther than what meets the eye.
What could be the reason for this media briefing? Either the strategist wanted to lull the BJP into a sense of overconfidence or was trying to build his image for the next political assignment, which is the Punjab Assembly election. There is also the possibility that by raking up the issue of the BJP winning, the strategist wanted to create a fear of the BJP among Muslim voters and achieve complete polarisation by making the community favour the Trinamool Congress.
If Kishor knows the functioning of the BJP, which he knows quite well considering that he was a part of the party’s campaign during the Lok Sabha polls in 2014, he should be certain that the party has perfected its election machinery and such talks are unlikely to impact its momentum negatively. On the contrary, it is likely to enthuse the BJP cadre and help fence-sitters make up their minds. Fear of the TMC might have forced them not to go against Banerjee but the impression of a surging BJP may now embolden them to come out and try to vote her out.
The second reason seems more likely. He stuck his neck out in December 2020 when he said the BJP would struggle to cross double-digit figures and, if it did, he would quit Twitter, the platform where he had made this prediction. Then, in an interview with a television channel in March this year, he said he would quit his job as a political strategist if the BJP won 100 seats in the state. Now, his admission of a BJP surge in West Bengal during the Clubhouse interaction belies his claims. Is he then building his case for not quitting, should the BJP win in the state by defeating the Trinamool Congress?
His image as a political strategist rests on the impression that he can make parties win elections by using social media as a tool to shore up an image and strengthen political constituencies. It is a different matter that his claims have not been fully established. The BJP has surged ahead despite rival political parties trying to use his services to stop the saffron juggernaut.
This brings us to the third possibility. It is quite possible that Mamata Banerjee’s political managers have concluded that the only way to win the elections is through the complete consolidation of Muslim votes for the TMC. The vote is getting split due to the desperate Congress and Left joining hands with the Indian Secular Front formed by Abbas Siddiqui. In a sharply polarised election between the BJP and the TMC, both the Left and the Congress are looking for political relevance. The Muslims must therefore be told not to waste their votes. The projection of a strong BJP may persuade them to change their minds. Promises fail but fear works, that is the principle being applied here.
Whatever his intention, the issues that cropped up during the interaction should be discussed publicly. A crucial statement made by Kishor is about the “emergence of the Prime Minister as a demigod for some 15 percent population of the country”. If this is true, it would translate into the support of 21 crore Hindu voters who consider him a “demigod”. This is enough to propel him to power with a massive majority in 2024 when the Lok Sabha elections take place.
Kishor also said that about 50 percent Hindus would vote for Modi, which includes 75 percent Matua voters. Even if we take this as an indicator and extrapolate it to the national level, this would translate into the support of 26 crore voters, considering that 62 crore people voted last time (in 2019) and out of that about 84 percent must have been Hindus. The BJP had secured 17.1 crore votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and 22.9 crore in 2019. The likely scenario is a complete sweep for Modi and the BJP in 2024.
One of the other critical issues raised but not discussed fully is the policy of minority appeasement in West Bengal by various parties. Muslims have emerged as a vote bank and hence every party has treated them with velvet gloves in terms of giving them concessions. This has produced a counter-narrative in the state. The policy of uniting Muslims and dividing Hindus is no longer working. Banerjee tried to secularise herself through temple-hopping, talking about her Brahmin gotra and doling out some concessions to Hindu priests. But people know that these were theatrics, just like her campaigning in a wheelchair.
Nobody in the media pliant to Banerjee has been talking of anti-incumbency. Actually, the performance, or a lack of it, has not been discussed in the media that has become too obsessed with communal polarisation. The controversial statement of a nondescript leader from the BJP is blown out of proportion but the carefully woven narrative by the Prime Minister and other senior leaders around faster development is completely ignored. Banerjee’s communal and vituperative statements in which she appeals to the minority Muslim community to vote for her party has added fuel to the fire and various other statements of this kind have recharged the atmosphere.
Thus, besides a huge section of the majority that concludes they have been ignored and given an unfair deal, a progressive section genuinely believes that the state badly needs development, for which the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi is their best bet. They want a secure and strong country, and faster development. And it is here that Mamata Banerjee has completely failed.
Thus, Prashant Kishor knows that a government with so many odds arranged against it cannot win. Attempting a consolidation of the Muslims is merely a ploy that may not work. It can fuel the counter-narrative, but in his heart of hearts, he knows that Banerjee is on sticky wickets. He has already absolved himself by speaking the truth in an informal media interaction. That would be there to back him up.
Punjab is more promising because Captain Amarinder Singh appears to be on a strong wicket. The Akalis and the BJP have split and the BJP would need to work very hard to work its way up. In politics or in the roadmap to becoming a political strategist you have to save your skin for another day and prepare for the next fight.
The writer is convener of the Media Relations Department of the BJP and represents the party as a spokesperson on TV debates. He has authored the book ‘Narendra Modi: The Game Changer’. The views expressed are personal.
If Kishor knows the functioning of the BJP, which he knows quite well considering that he was a part of the party’s campaign during the Lok Sabha polls in 2014, he should be certain that the party has perfected its election machinery and such talks are unlikely to impact its momentum negatively. On the contrary, it is likely to enthuse the BJP cadre and help fence-sitters make up their minds. Fear of the TMC might have forced them not to go against Banerjee but the impression of a surging BJP may now embolden them to come out and try to vote her out.