The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that Cyclone Remal, the first cyclone of this pre-monsoon season in the Bay of Bengal, will likely make landfall between Sagar Island in West Bengal and Bangladesh’s Khepupara around midnight on Sunday. Wind speeds may reach up to 120 kilometres per hour.
“Remal” is the name given to the cyclone as per the naming convention followed for cyclones in the Indian Ocean region, suggested by Oman, meaning ‘sand’ in Arabic. The IMD, as part of the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres (RSMCs), assigns names after consulting with 12 other countries in the region.
The cyclone is expected to cause significant damage due to strong winds and heavy rainfall, particularly affecting vulnerable structures, power and communication lines, roads, and agricultural areas in South and North 24 Parganas districts of West Bengal. Residents of such structures have been advised to seek safer indoor locations.
Scientists attribute the intensification and longer duration of cyclones to the warming of oceans, as warmer sea surface temperatures provide favourable conditions for their formation and intensification. D S Pai, a senior scientist at IMD, explains that warmer sea temperatures increase moisture, supporting cyclone intensification.
Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary of the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, highlights that a sea surface temperature of 27 degrees Celsius or higher is necessary for a low-pressure system to develop into a cyclone. Currently, the Bay of Bengal’s sea surface temperature is around 30 degrees Celsius, facilitating cyclone formation.
Rajeevan emphasizes that while warm ocean temperatures promote cyclone formation, excessive vertical wind shear can weaken them.