The second wave of Covid-19 has ravaged vast sections of the population with a record number of cases and casualties, aggravating further the challenges and ill-health of families.
Confirmed reports of 3.90 lakh deaths (Maharashtra leading and Delhi not lagging behind) vis-à-vis three crore registered cases have come to light. These are mere statistics for people who have suffered or those likely to suffer. There are reports that the death figures have been suppressed in eight states. Further, in a span of 10 days, Bihar with a rise of 73% deaths in 24 hours, as reported to the Patna High Court, and 1,97,000 “excess” deaths in U.P., as per the Article 14 website, could be termed as phenomenal examples of under-reporting.
Such a statistical inconsistency is likely to prevail during the third wave as well, when the Delta variant is going to be more transmissible. Individuals who died under miserable circumstances all had their hopes, dreams and aspirations.
KUMBH FAKE CERTIFICATES
As if this were not bad enough, the disturbing news about fake certificates numbering about one lakh, issued during the Mahakumbh has surfaced (I too was a victim of such cheating). Consequently, cases pertaining to negligence, spreading disease, cheating, etc, have been filed against three laboratories with regard to Rapid Antigen tests. In the midst of this raging pandemic, a certain percentage of the labour force has rejoined work when unlocking began. They have no option but to survive and sustain. In the event of fresh infection, general health deteriorates, either for want of proper guidance at home or it is bed or oxygen which generally becomes the determining factor.
The situation may worsen, however, if the ongoing phase of accelerated vaccination drive (with a record of 8.5 million doses on the first day which dipped to 4.5 million on day two) is not maintained with Central procurement and timely supplies. Can anyone guarantee this? The fact of the matter in the present scenario, however, looks just the opposite. How to remedy such a ticklish situation?
INEVITABLE THIRD WAVE
A recent statement of the Director, AIIMS, pertaining to an inevitable third wave in the next six to eight weeks, has unfortunately bolstered the level of anxiety, apart from much guesswork. Even then, Covid-19 norms are being flouted. Though many have learnt lessons from the immediate past, instead of expressing regret, a majority don’t mind paying fines.
BRITISH SCIENTIST’S OPINION
In addition, Prof Adam Finn, a British scientist, too, has subscribed to a similar stand due to what he claims “Delta variant of coronavirus being first identified in India.” He further adds that for the time being, the surge in infections may not appear much, yet the same will show an upward swing, especially in the age group 16 to 25 years. Be that as it may, the process of hospital admissions, both in India and England, shall have to be closely monitored from day one to get periodic clarity and in chalking out a plan of pre-emptive action, based on past performance.
VULNERABLE POCKETS
Reverting to the domestic scene, keeping in view the vulnerability of Maharashtra and Delhi, the Maharashtra government and the Delhi HC have already warned of the “devastating” third wave, thus: “If flouting of norms continues, expect the third wave to hasten its pace.”
One may remind that the worst outbreak so far between 5 April to 10 May 2021, compelled helpless citizens to scramble from hospital to hospital, which was, in a way, facilitated by irresponsible media utterances.
While the “free for all” Mahakumbh and thousands of fake tests conducted by three private agencies therein, have come to the fore, “prediction” of 37,000 daily cases likely to go up to an extent of 45,000 in Delhi, has unnecessarily added to the state of depression and fear concerning the third wave.
Can’t we be more positive on health, education and social welfare fronts? Also, is it proper for the Government of India to tell the states “now” not to rush to unlock, after having given arguments in favour of losses being suffered time and again by industrialists and businessmen and rising unemployment all over?
FACTOR OF EFFICACY
In the meanwhile, efficacy reported to the extent of 96% with regards to Pfizer, 92% with regard to AstraZeneca and 76% of Covaxin after two doses, probably may give some respite. Also, the disclosure that fatalities drop in places having high vaccination rates and that male fertility is not hurt by vaccination and finding of another study that Covid hits cognition, need to be seriously looked into.
However, a warning from some other experts that the coronavirus may continue to evolve for a few years more, certainly disturbs all sections. As such, according to emerging trends, vaccines are unlikely to protect fully against infection or may be, relapse. It may sound pessimistic, but this is how it is.
The writer is the ex-Chief Secretary, the Government of Sikkim. The views expressed are personal.