Every time there is a loss of faith in the Modi government, we are asked the inevitable question: If not Narendra Modi, then who? Surveys will then give us the option of Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Arvind Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar and so on. Inevitably, in the face of these options—one national leader and the others being leaders of regional parties—we end up with a shrug and say: oh well, Modi is the best of the lot. In fact, as a recent C Voter survey showed, PM Modi’s popularity is dipping but not enough to be overtaken by anyone else.
Yes, Rahul Gandhi has been talking a great deal of sense on social media and at his (many) press conferences. Be it on China, Covid or the economy, his views do strike a chord especially with the middle class. But when it comes to the electoral ground, his views do not seem to matter all that much. Take a look at the recent Assembly polls where the Congress was in a straight fight with the BJP in Assam. It even had a formidable alliance in place, but for reasons of his own, Rahul Gandhi stayed away from the poll campaign. And second, the Congress could not put up a credible fight against the BJP. That the BJP’s campaign was led by a former Congress leader (and current CM) would have only added insult to the injury. Neither did the Congress do well in the state that Rahul did focus on, Kerala. In West Bengal the party came away with zero. The only state where it did well was Tamil Nadu where it piggy backed on the DMK’s campaign.
Hence to expect the Congress to emerge as an alternative to the BJP is not an option, though a lot can happen between now and 2024 (the next general elections). This still gives the BJP and PM Modi three years to get their act together and undo the damage from their handling of Covid-19. Will he be able to do this—for unlike demonetisation, Covid has not just destroyed livelihoods but also lives. Each one of us—both in rural India and the metros—has lost someone or knows someone who has. This was not the case during the first wave. Yes, there is an attempt to shift the blame to the chief ministers, but unlike the Congress leadership, Mamata Banerjee, Uddhav Thakeray, Hemant Soren and Navin Patnaik will not let this narrative go without challenging it. And they have the credentials of good governance to back them. Even Congress regional chieftains like Capt Amarinder Singh, Bhupesh Baghel and Ashok Gehlot will strike back with their own version—and in this post-truth world, they may find more than a few takers.
Moreover with nearly three years for a general election, the question of leadership belongs as much to the BJP as it does to the Opposition. The Opposition cannot change the BJP leadership, but the RSS and the BJP can. Question is: will they and do they want to? Because PM Modi still remains their best vote catcher. Take a look at the recent state polls—the BJP retained Assam and did creditably well in West Bengal. Only it fell prey to its own hype that it was going to sweep the state, but remove this assumption and you will admit that the party notched up some credible numbers, taking its tally from 3 MLAs to 77, emerging as the second largest party in the state. The test will of course be the UP elections due early next year. Will Ram Mandir work—and will the elections be fought on Yogi Adityanath’s name or PM Modi’s? The RSS too is said to be keeping a keen eye on the Hindi heartland, and it would be interesting to see who gets to lead this campaign between the two Hindutva icons. Given the current panchayat poll results, it does seem as if Yogi will need PM Modi’s campaigning to help him.
In the meantime, we are told that a Cabinet reshuffle is on the cards and one in which performers rather than loyalists may get a place, or an upgrade. All in all the mishandling of Covid has exposed a big hole in PM Modi’s governance story. It is for him to breach this gap, or not.