From the unusual anatomical challenges of Covid-19 swiftly exhausting the common man’s savings, followed by acute depression, and anxiety-ridden days in two spells, people have had enough in the last 15 months. The existing gap in the number of deaths vis a vis rapid reduction in confirmed cases after 55 days, makes it apparent that the role of science appears subdued. Instead, the psychological dimensions are assuming a greater role. After the first anniversary of the Janta Curfew on 22 March 2020, we have a choice of at least eight vaccines (four in India) as compared to none earlier.
These are the fresh developments:
(a) Alpha (B.1.1.7) to Delta (B.1.617.2) variant switch leading to most devastating spike from 99,181 cases on 10 September (fell to 88,198 on 2 April) to a rise to 93,249 on 4 April and again to 4,14,188 cases on 7 May
(b) Findings of Indian scientists of NCDC and IGIB, that prior infections and one dose vaccination are insufficient against the virus, need to be flagged first. Thus, light on the necessity to have upgraded public awareness, conduct, and behaviour may have to be thrown. It will have to be supported by a robust public health response.
‘FOREIGN’ MUTATIONS AND VARIANTS
From a period of disturbing developments between the first week of 13 April to 14 May, showing creeping up 24-hour cases, positivity, CFR, and active case rates, there was a downward trend but a slow reduction in the number of casualties disturbs. One of the English dailies hinted at 771 Covid variants, whereas another daily had presented a very grim picture of Maharastra and Kerala on one hand and Punjab and Chattisgarh on the other. These were all having cases of Alfa, now renamed to Delta by the WHO, these are cases of Californian, the U.K. type, South African, and the Brazilian variant. In a vast, congested, and casual India, fresh Covid awareness and appropriate conduct are very much necessary.
Interestingly, one study of AIIMS had indicated that the common cold virus may have saved many Indians. Further, cross-reactive T cells from coronavirus that cause common cold may not protect from Covid but by responding to SARS-CoV-2 protein, they may restrict the severity of the disease. Also, immunity from Indian food habits may have been a contributing factor.
Whatever it may be, longer resistance or distance of about seven feet cannot always be enforced or guaranteed by the executive, each time an announcement is made regarding lockdown or Covid curfew.
BETTER CARE AND CONDUCT A MUST
As opposed to blanket 68 days of lockdown of the first wave, the liberal measures of the second wave lockdown (54 days) and slowly emerging concessions, have not boomeranged exactly but the government can always be ‘taken for granted’.
While the desire for a change or ‘breathing out’ after a long spell may be imagined, if not appreciated, a close look at people’s habits and reactions in the last few weeks even while rushing for vaccinations are not at all encouraging.
FAITH OR FEAR
Unconvincing and inconclusive debate on this issue has been on since the beginning of Maha Kumbh. Despite meticulous planning, mobilisation of large manpower and sizeable expenditure, not only hundreds of pilgrims died but very aged heads of eight Akharas also expired. Hence, taking a chance itself proved to be a ‘sin’. Further, threats emerged from apparently essential festivities, weddings, death ceremonies, unwanted urge for window shopping, recreating networking, away from home offices and whatnot.
MEGA SPREADERS
The mega spreaders were three day Holi celebrations and five weeks of the election process in four states and one Union Territory that made a mockery of all Covid protocols. Not only the election-bound states together with the Election Commission of India avoided adopting strict measures, Covid data collection, its analysis and final report to the Centre too suffered. And as yet, a very modest number of cases and casualty figures are being reported from otherwise tension causing and volatile states of Bihar, West Bengal, and Assam.
NORTHEAST SCENE
Though Northeast states of Sikkim, Manipur, Mizoram, and Meghalaya did not undergo elections, they are reporting case-fatality ratio (CFR) and positivity rates higher than the national average for a month, mainly on account of the public non-cooperation.
Incidentally, the above-indicated parameters were within limits during the first wave and the first quarter of 2021. This speaks of a clear compromise on Covid awareness and prescribed protocols.
SOME REMEDIES
According to a study of Cellular and Molecular Biology (CCMB), Hyderabad while there is an immediate need to avoid crowded places and hygiene will have to be ensured and the earlier practice of carrying sanitiser may have to be insisted upon. Taxi and TSR drivers must refix plastic sheets. One should carry minimum cash and valuables while leaving home.
NATIONAL SCENE
We are taking pride in being the world leader in vaccinations(almost 23.11 crore doses so far) but one forgets the loss factor, at a time when some of the countries are yet to begin even the first round. The average 10% loss of vaccines in Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, and Uttar Pradesh is something unpalatable.
60 PLUS DESERVE CARE
Also, slow coverage of 60 plus category is a matter of extreme concern. Not more than 50 % achievement has been recorded. Thus one can imagine the time to be taken for vaccinating over 20.2 crore people in this group. Not always official callousness may cause misery. Experience of many states has shown that people are in double mind even after registration and taking the first dose. Another threat comes from the listeners/viewers picking up a few shortfalls quickly and circulating the same without realising the consequences. But genuine success stories are mostly ignored.
NEGLECT OF VILLAGERS
Another disturbing development is very little focus on rural areas. Not only precious time is lost but rural folks are also manoeuvred easily by the negative news. Further, carelessness can be fatal in future, irrespective of ongoing summer and freak weather conditions.
Measures like night curfew, 33 % office attendance, restarting metro with 50% occupancy, and partial building activity etc. may not help at the moment. The behaviour pattern of relatively well-off citizens looks incorrigible while the poor continue to suffer. The desire to have fresh air gets multiplied day after day. While a thorough review of institutional mechanism should be on cards, the Central government will also have to extend the present lockdown and reconsider the decision to delay the second dose of the vaccine.
In the public domain, it is not always an ideal-typical scenario. Life is full of compromises, especially in a happening place like India. For right-thinking individuals, the dictum of self-help being the help may also work. More and more casual behaviour will prove counterproductive. Also expecting everything from the government may not be fair.
The writer is the ex-Chief Secretary, the Government of Sikkim. The views expressed are personal.