COP29, which begins Monday in Azerbaijan’s capital, could prove to be the most significant climate meeting since the 2015 Paris Agreement—if it successfully delivers a robust finance agreement to enhance the flow of funds for climate action.
One of the largest obstacles to accelerating climate action, which is urgently needed to prevent catastrophic increases in global temperatures, is insufficient funding. COP29, the 29th edition of the annual climate conference, is expected to agree on at least a ten-fold increase in financial contributions from developed countries. However, reaching this agreement has never been easy. Led by the United States, developed countries have been advocating for an expanded ‘donor base,’ seeking contributions from wealthier nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Singapore, or even China, to boost the climate finance pool.
However, the election of Donald Trump as the next US President casts a much darker shadow over the success of COP29 than simply differing national positions on the finance agreement. When Trump was elected in 2016, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement. Four years later, Joe Biden reversed that decision. Now, there are fears that if Trump is re-elected, he might pull the US not only from the Paris Agreement but also from the UN Framework Convention itself, the broader framework for global climate negotiations.
Trump, who has campaigned less vocally about climate change this time compared to 2016, has still made it clear that withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is on his agenda. As a climate sceptic, Trump views the global climate framework as disproportionately disadvantageous to the US, particularly in how it benefits China economically and in terms of employment. He has expressed intentions to do everything possible to correct this, including expanding domestic oil and gas production—an approach that directly contradicts global climate goals.
The goals of the Paris Agreement—limiting global temperature rise to 2°C, or ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels—cannot be achieved without significant contributions from the US, the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China and the largest historical emitter. To date, the US has made minimal progress, with little in terms of emissions reductions and insufficient financial contributions. There are still hopes for improvement, as long as the US remains within the global climate system. However, if Trump chooses to withdraw again, climate targets may become irrelevant.
The US’s critical role within the climate framework is its unique ability to mobilize global financial resources, which is key to COP29’s success. Although Trump has made no statements on climate change since his election, his well-known scepticism and past record loom over the discussions in Baku.
The finance agreement being negotiated in Baku is not only about increasing the total financial flows—currently, developed countries are obligated to raise US$ 100 billion annually, with the goal of reaching at least US$ 1 trillion a year from 2026. That figure is only the headline goal. The aim is to deliver a more comprehensive finance package, one that will ensure greater transparency and better access for the countries most in need.
“COP29 should not only focus on raising the quantum of climate finance but also improving its quality. Climate finance must be consistent, convenient, catalytic, and credible. No developed country has delivered 100 per cent of its pledged climate finance. As we debate the New Collective Quantified Goal, the question is not just how much is needed, but how reliably it will be delivered,” said Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
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