Normally one hesitates to make predictions about upcoming elections, especially at a time when the election dates have not even been announced, but with Lok Sabha 2024, even the most cautious psephologist will take the leap. Is there any one who doubts the Prime Minister when he so confidently predicts a win in the next elections? One can quibble with the numbers, he may not get the 370 target he has so confidently announced, but that really seems more for the optics and all the messaging that comes with the number 370. But will the BJP win ? The answer is a resounding yes. Will the BJP better its tally – the answer to that will also be a probable yes. Will the BJP get 370 – that is probably the only question up for debate.
And if we look for answers, the victory figure will not be found in the BJP as much as it will within the Opposition. If there is one reason why the BJP continues to march unstopped, it is the dismal state of the opposition. The other reason of course is the Prime MInister’s own popularity but even the strongest of leaders come with a sell-by date, as we saw with Indira Gandhi. However many – or few – mistakes Modi may make, the opposition is not in a position to take advantage of these simply because there is no alternative. And as long as the Congress remains in flux, there can be no alternative because as the only pan India party in the opposition the onus is on them to provide a credible solution.
Rahul Gandhi is busy with his yatra, which in principle is not a bad idea as yatras are proven tools of mass mobilisation. The first leg of his yatra was successful in the limited sense it uplifted RAhul’s image from that of being a Pappu to that of being a leader who listens. But what did Rahul do with all the listening? Did he make the last mile connectivity between the public and the Congress leadership before he embarked on the second leg of his yatra?
The Congress manifesto committee which is putting the final touches on a 50 page document of poll promises has come up with some suggestions. Some are routine – such as giving legal guarantee to MSP promises, talking about a caste census and filling existing government vacancies on a priority basis. What I found out of the box were the measures to woo the youth. Taking a cue from a German model of apprenticeship the manifesto talks of a dual vocational training system that tailors education to practical workshop learning. This is the need of the hour where students with impressive degrees still find themselves without a job. The other is a promise of compensation to those students who sat for an exam only to have it cancelled due to a paper leak. This will strike a chord for the victims of paper leaks who lose valuable time and resources when the exams are cancelled through no fault of theirs.
The Congress needs to up its game. Because thinking of the right promises is only half the battle, the other half is to get the right messaging across. It has already lost the communication battle twice over. Rahul Gandhi needs to face his messaging because on the other side he faces the Greatest Communicator of Them All. .