While since last February the world’s attention has been mainly focussed on the war in Ukraine, the confrontation between Iran with the United States and Israel is escalating dangerously and could take the form of unconventional war. This dangerous situation is basically due to three reasons:
First, the failure of the parties involved to reach an agreement on a nuclear deal that would significantly reduce economic sanctions on Iran and in exchange Tehran would reduce its nuclear program -which is seen by the West as aiming at building a nuclear bomb- and would allow international monitoring.
Second, the supply of hundreds of cheap Iranian drones to the Russian Army which it uses to destroy Ukraine’s electricity and water supply infrastructure. The use of Iranian drones is causing severe hardship to millions of Ukrainian civilians, leaving them without heating, lighting and running water.Third, the brutal repression of Iranian protesters demonstrating against the government, using live ammunition and killing hundreds of them and arresting and sending to jail more than 1000 people. Now let’s see in more detail the reasons why the confrontation between Tehran and the West has greatly escalated in recent months and can take the form of an unconventional war.
Hopes for the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that would have prevented the development of an Iranian nuclear bomb in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions were dashed a few months ago.
Last month Iran announced that it would start enriching uranium at 60% purity at its Fordow plant – a plant buried inside a mountain- which could be protected from missile attacks or air strikes.
This decision, taken in retaliation for a resolution of the International Atomic Energy Agency ordering Iran to cooperate in an investigation concerning the finding of uranium particles in undeclared sites, was seen by the West as a serious provocation.
Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu as well as many Israeli leaders belonging to different parties have repeatedly warned that Israel was prepared to use its right to self-defense and do whatever it takes to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb. Such drones are known to cost about USD dollars 20,000, whereas surface-to-air missiles or ground-based interceptors cost between USD 400,000 and USD 1.2 million each.