China exports in April 2025 rose by 8.1%, well above market expectations and providing Beijing with some economic respite ahead of crucial trade negotiations with the United States this weekend. Meanwhile, imports dipped only modestly, allaying fears of slack domestic demand. The surprise strength comes as the US and China continue to be mired in a high-stakes trade war, with over 100% tariffs hanging over both economies.
The fresh statistics come as Beijing and Washington plan to hold their initial tariff negotiations since the increase, injecting tension and bargaining power into the negotiation table.
Exports Surprise Markets, But Momentum Slows
China’s exports increased 8.1% year-on-year in April. That figure surpassed the 1.9% economists had predicted but fell short of March’s 12.4% increase. In March, exporters scrambled to avoid the US tariff deadline. The April performance, however, indicates resilience despite pressure. The surplus was at $96.18 billion, from $102.64 billion in March, but remained robust.
Imports declined 0.2% from a year earlier. That was a significant improvement from March’s 4.3% decline and better than the 5.9% drop predicted by analysts. While domestic demand is still weak, the data indicates cautious signs of stabilization. China still struggles with poor investor sentiment and spillovers from its housing downturn.
Tariff Talks Begin, but Outlook Remains Grim
Chinese and American officials will meet in Switzerland over the weekend. They are looking for a way forward after both sides put in place punitive tariffs last April—145% from the US, and 125% from China. Tech products such as smartphones and computers have since been exempted, but relief on a broader scale is unlikely.
Trump has declined to reduce tariffs to entice China to the negotiating table. In the meantime, Beijing insists that Washington desist from using coercive tactics. The atmosphere remains strained, and any breakthrough is uncertain.
Stimulus Steps to Cushion the Blow
In preparation for the tariff effect, Beijing has introduced new stimulus measures. China injected liquidity into markets and reduced key policy rates on Wednesday. These are all part of its strategy to shield its export engine and achieve its “around 5%” growth target in 2025.
China’s robust April performance provides short-term relief. But if tariffs continue and negotiations stall, the nation’s export-led momentum will quickly decay. Increasing global protectionism, coupled with low domestic confidence, makes April’s figures a shallow high point instead of a turning point.
