India has to deal with the tremendous changes that have occurred recently in the geopolitical scene, especially in South Asia. For example, India has experienced a significant shock from the recent coup in Bangladesh.
As the late Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee famously said, “You can change your friends, but not your neighbors.” India’s continuous conflict with several of its unfriendly neighbors is brought to light by this.
Currently, India’s neighbors are grappling with political instability. Bangladesh, which was once politically and economically stable, has recently experienced a coup, leading to significant unrest. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted and has sought refuge in India.
Aside from Bhutan, most neighboring countries now have governments with anti-India tendencies. In Nepal, the leadership has recently shifted to a pro-China administration. Bangladesh is currently under an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, but upcoming elections could result in a government that may adopt an anti-India stance.
The Impact of Bangladesh’s Crisis
Bangladesh was founded with India’s assistance, and their relationship has traditionally been strong. Sheikh Hasina, who was known for her close ties with India, played a crucial role in this relationship. Her removal from power could pose difficulties for India. Recently, Hasina cut short a visit to China and returned to Bangladesh, where she emphasized India’s role in the Teesta project, expressing a preference for India to complete it.
With Hasina no longer in power, the possibility of an anti-India government taking over is increasing. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Khaleda Zia and Jamaat-e-Islami are potential contenders. These parties are more aligned with Islamic extremism and have stronger ties with Pakistan, which could benefit China due to its close relationship with Pakistan.
Additionally, Hasina’s administration had been active against anti-India terrorist groups, and her departure could lead to increased terrorist infiltration into Bangladesh.
China’s Expanding Influence in the Region
The instability in Bangladesh is not only a concern for India but also for Bangladesh itself, which faces issues with unemployment and inflation. Bangladesh is likely to want to maintain a good relationship with India for economic reasons.
There is also a possibility that Bangladesh might strengthen its ties with China. Under Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh balanced relations between India and China.
China’s Growing Presence Around India’s Neighbors
China’s influence is expanding in South Asia, encircling India with strategic alliances:
Sri Lanka: The country has been struggling with instability largely due to China’s influence. Under the Rajapaksa government, Sri Lanka’s ties with China deepened, leading to heavy debt. Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy in April 2022 with over $51 billion in debt. President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who succeeded Rajapaksa, is working on economic recovery. The upcoming elections in September-October 2024 will be crucial. Wickremesinghe’s victory would be favorable for India, but if another party wins, it could pose challenges.
Pakistan: India and Pakistan have had tense relations since their partition in 1947, including three wars, two of which were over Kashmir. Pakistan’s historical military rule and anti-India stance continue. Pakistan has deepened its alliance with China, which has invested heavily in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China covers most of the costs, worsening Pakistan’s economic situation and increasing its debt.
Myanmar: Myanmar has been embroiled in civil conflict for over three years. In February 2021, the military overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The current military regime has intensified ties with China. Myanmar’s economy is heavily burdened by Chinese debt and may face bankruptcy soon.
Maldives: Mohamed Muizzu, elected last year, has strained relations with India through his “India Out” campaign. Muizzu is pro-China, and relations between India and the Maldives have deteriorated since his election. His predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih had strengthened ties with India. Muizzu has signed numerous agreements with China to reduce dependency on India, though his administration is now reconsidering its stance, suggesting India will be the first to respond in times of trouble.
Bhutan: Surrounded by India, Bhutan is moving closer to China. Negotiations to resolve border disputes with China are in the final stages. Disputes involve areas like Doklam and others. If an agreement is reached, Chinese troops could come closer to India, as seen during the 2017 Doklam standoff.
Nepal: K.P. Sharma Oli, who became prime minister last month, has closer ties with China compared to his predecessor Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda,’ who was seen as pro-India. Oli’s government joined the BRI in 2017 and has taken a negative stance toward India. In 2019, Oli claimed Indian territories as part of Nepal, and a new map in May 2020 included these areas.
India’s Response
To maintain relationships with its neighbors and counter China’s influence, India has been providing substantial aid. The 2024-25 budget includes approximately ₹4,000 crore for aid to seven neighboring countries.
India has invested heavily in its neighbors, excluding Pakistan. South Asia is increasingly becoming a battleground between China and India. Through the BRI, China has expanded its influence in South Asia, surrounding India. To counter this, India’s economic assistance to these countries is essential.
The NDA government’s “Neighbour First” policy aims to keep neighboring countries engaged and reduce China’s influence in the region.