The INC’s sweeping victory in the state has certainly boosted its morale not only for the upcoming elections due in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana later this year, but also for the 2024 national elections.
The party currently only has absolute rule over four states in India (the party is a coalition member in other state governments), and the upcoming state elections will be a true test of its capability to perform in the 2024 elections.
While it might be too soon to talk about whether the INC’s victory in Karnataka will translate into gains atin the national level, it is clear that the new strategy the party adopted while moving away from its Gandhi vs Modi narrative against the BJP seems to have worked in its favour.
The Congress, which won both state elections in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka this year, carried out campaigns which were rooted in local issues. In Himachal, the party focused on local issues of increasing unemployment, rising prices, poor administrative governance, and corruption allegations against the backdrop of alleged irregularities in police recruitment, teacher recruitment, and problems of farmers, helping it secure 48 out of the 60 seats in the Assembly. It followed a very similar campaign in Karnataka. However, it might be difficult for the party to replicate this campaign strategy in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where it needs to address several issues before the states head to polls. In Rajasthan, for instance, party would have to address the potentially-damaging bickering between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. Similarly, in the sensitive state of Chhattisgarh, the party has a formidable chief minister in Bhupesh Bhagel but also has several regional contenders for the top post, as per analysts.
In Madhya Pradesh, the party also faces a tough challenge in attempting to dethrone Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who remains popular despite allegations of scams.
In addition to this, when talking about the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it is very important to remember that the Indian electorate votes very differently when it comes to national and state- level elections. Since 2014, the Iindian voters have continued to support the Narendra Modi-led BJP at the national level, even when it has sufferednt huge losses at the state level, including in 2018 in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh as well as its loss at the hands of the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi. While the Congress’s strategy so far has worked in two states, it will be important to see if the party is able to overcome its internal factionalism, as well as establish a credible narrative and face to take on the BJP in 2024. The upcoming state elections might be a good indicator of the Congress’ true abilities.