With the surplus expected to alleviate the fiscal deficit, India’s economic landscape is poised to benefit from enhanced fiscal sustainability and prudent financial management. The report indicates that the substantial increase in the surplus can be attributed to higher income from the RBI’s forex holdings, among other factors. The RBI’s surplus was influenced by its Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) operations and interest income from domestic and foreign securities holdings.
The provisional components of the RBI’s balance sheet reveal a marginal increase in domestic assets, while foreign assets saw a significant rise. The surplus in FY24 swelled due to higher domestic and foreign interest rates, and a reduction in payables under the LAF. Additionally, the increase in gold prices contributed to the overall expansion of the RBI’s balance sheet.
The RBI’s income rose from ₹1.6 lakh crore in FY22 to ₹2.35 lakh crore in FY23. The SBI report projects that the RBI’s income for FY24 will be approximately ₹3.75 to 4 lakh crore. It anticipates a 60-70% year-on-year increase in the RBI’s income, primarily from interest income on foreign securities and exchange gains from foreign exchange transactions.
The RBI stated that the surplus transfer to the government for FY24 is based on the Economic Capital Framework (ECF) adopted on August 26, 2019, following the recommendations of the Bimal Jalan committee.