Two major security lapses made headlines in the UK recently. Amidst the political chaos of transition between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak came the first revelation of nearly 30 ex-Royal Air Force (RAF) pilots in China, training its military personnel to fly advanced aircraft. Deemed a serious national security risk, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) issued an intelligence alert warning against lucrative Chinese recruitment campaigns. But a few days later, reports of a second significant lapse emerged. As late as 2019, the MoD allowed Chinese nationals to train on UK soil, attend UK military college and even sent serving RAF pilots as instructors to Beijing.
These incidents have brought to light massive inconsistencies in the UK’s defence and foreign policy towards China. Even though the Conservatives have been in power for more than ten years, the UK’s China strategy has ranged from dovish to hawkish. The revolving door of 10 Downing Street may make David Cameron’s premiership seem old, but just in 2015, his administration was wooing and courting China. Xi Jinping addressed both houses of Parliament and was even hosted by the Queen at Buckingham Palace. Cameron touted the UK-China relationship as one for “long-term prosperity”. Now in 2022, the UK’s spy chief designated China as a “threat’’. The head of MI5, the UK’s intelligence agency and his American counterpart went further to call China the “biggest long-term threat” to economic and national security.
In recent years, the posture of both the UK and China in the international arena has significantly evolved. The latter’s wolf warrior diplomacy approach has made it aggressive on several fronts like the South China sea, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Border skirmishes mar its relationship with India and there has been a steady decline in relations with notable allies of the West like Australia and Canada.
The new entrant, Rishi Sunak, seems to have taken a more mellowed approach to foreign policy but is yet to declare any clear stance on China. The two recent significant security lapses regarding RAF and the training of Chinese military personnel point to how inconsistency in policy can affect the UK’s ability to deal with matters related to China. This needs to change.
The UK needs to clearly identify red flags and strategic objectives when it comes to China. It cannot continue to link economic and strategic goals in a linear direction. There is a three-way trade-off between economic, security and political interests. On the political front, China’s treatment of minorities like Uyghurs and the restrictions on Hong Kong, a former British colony, has raised significant public concern forcing the government to take a strong stand. On the security front, China’s action has made its divergent security interests from the UK abundantly clear, be it in Taiwan, the South China Sea or Ukraine. The economic front presents many challenges too, from the banning of Huawei to China’s involvement in hacking scandals and corporate espionage that has damaged its reputation among UK businesses. China is also unabashed in using its economic prowess to achieve strategic objectives through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative.
Implementing a strategic vision during a time of intense economic stress and domestic political instability is a challenging task. In the days ahead, we will see if Rishi Sunak is up to this. The Integrated Review of defence and foreign policy from March 2021 was the last comprehensive document outlining the UK’s approach to China. A long overdue update was just recently commissioned. But it is imperative to go beyond that. As suggested by several government and bureaucratic sources, a special China strategy review is needed and that should inform Rishi Sunak’s foreign policy priority. The UK badly needs a reckoning with reality.