Perception is the most powerful tool in information warfare today. The emergence of social media has increased its power manifold in a disproportionate magnitude. This is a two-way sword and depends on the intentions and skill of the user.
It is no secret that the Chinese economy is one of biggest jigsaw puzzles which nobody has been able to solve so far, as it changes its algorithm on the fly—that too, with the support of all its powerful players, institutions and power centres which matter in this game. A lot has been talked, written and spoken about regarding the Chinese economy but, in all honesty, it is still an enigma and it won’t be wrong to say that we know about the Chinese economy as much as we know about UFOs.
Data is what the Chinese love, as it is the building block for any perception crusade and propaganda war. The control of data is control of information and management of perception as a three-step process. And who knows this better than the Chinese?
It is imperative to be seen as an economic powerhouse to have a say in world affairs and be a player in the arena, or even to be seen and acknowledged as a superpower. Well, ambitions are nobody IPR and anybody is free to have them—rather, they must have them. The question is not about ambition, but intent. What are their intentions behind all this? This is the line which sets the narrative and the corresponding array of actions and justifications hereafter.
All of us across the globe have been made to believe that the Chinese economy is great and robust and the best after the US. This is the perception which has been created, managed and manicured the world over, with engineering accuracy and precision. I hate to say this, but I give full marks to the Chinese for this.
Let’s cut the long story short and look at a few things around us to make a call on what is prevalent in a logical human mind: fact or fiction. Today, for the first time, economists and pundits are worried and have started ringing alarm bells as we have no data coming from China. Earlier, the issue had been about the accuracy of data, but today, we have reached a state of no data. Hence, it is your guess, so be my guest.
The Chinese have announced that they will not rule out any economic targets for this year, which has happened for the first time since 1990. Again, what does this imply? Definitely not the state of honey-filled pots with honey dipping from them!
There is global news about Chinese scouting for food grains and meat products across the world like corn, pork and wheat. Chinese restaurant menus are shrinking and so is the selling price of buffets. Though the Chinese love elaborate buffets, this spells tough luck!
Unemployment numbers are to the tune of nearly 10%. This again is being quoted by the Chinese media and with a warning that most small businesses may not survive the next three years and the number for that is a whopping 85%. Needless to say, these small businesses create more than 60% of total employment in China. It might also be worth it to mention that salaries are not even comparable with 2019’s numbers.
Moving on from subjective parameters, let’s look at some objective parameters or economic indicators. The app ban by the Indian government will cost the Chinese hundreds of billions of dollars in the years to come and also end their dream of becoming a technology superpower as this kisses goodbye to metadata and, in turn, to AI superiority. The 5G ban is also a done thing, not only by India, but by many other countries like the UK and the USA, which again is a body blow to their economy.
Another interesting aspect, which has gone down in history as part of President Trump’s legacy, is the Congress passing the historical bill of public company accounting oversight board or PCAOB, which makes it mandatory for any company which is listed or wants to remain on the US stock exchange to open their last three years’ books to audit for American authorities to ensure that their numbers are fairly and accurately reflected. The Chinese have been avoiding this, stating some data security state secret and other weird excuses. This has further resulted in hundreds of Chinese companies getting delisted from the stock exchange, which is again a loss of hundreds of billions of US dollar and future business losses, potentially in trillions of dollars.
For the last twenty years, no major Chinese government-owned entity has been audited, again for reasons of national security. Yet, we are made to believe that China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (SNP) and PetroChina Co Ltd (PTR) are in the top five revenue earners in the world! According to what logic? ANT group IPO of $35 billion also did not fly or it was a mission aborted as the Chinese economy could not possibly handle a $35 billion IPO this time around, as you can be sure that there is no more money pouring into China from the world anymore.
There is one more dimension to the story of Chinese debt, which, at 320% of their GDP, which stands at a whopping $45 trillion, is incidentally equal to 60% of global GDP. It is worth mentioning here that India’s debt is a total of $1.5 trillion only. So, whether you like to believe it or not, we are an economic powerhouse!
What shatters my imagination is that today, in this world of interconnected and interdependent economies, is there a time bomb ticking? After Covid coming from Wuhan labs or Wuhan markets, is there an economic pandemic on the way from somewhere in PRC?
It sends a chill down my spine as I imagine $15 trillion of the global GDP lost, 192 countries affected, millions infected and more than half a million dead, and billions of livelihoods impacted across the world, including mine. And yet, this is not the end. There is possibly more to come.