Introduction: The recent resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on 5th August 2024 has thrown Bangladesh into chaos, raising concerns that go beyond its borders. The crisis, marked by protests and violence, has been worsened by police brutality, enforced disappearances, and the involvement of groups like Jamaat e Islami. Hasina’s increasingly autocratic tendencies in her later years of leadership drew uncomfortable parallels with her father’s governance. As Bangladesh grapples with these issues, the impact on South Asia and the global community is significant.
Political Unrest and Governance Challenges: The unrest stemmed from discontent over the government’s job reservation policies, particularly a controversial quota system favoring families of veterans from the 1971 war. Despite the Supreme Court’s decision to reduce this quota, protests continued, fuelled by dissatisfaction with Hasina’s administration. This discontent is deeply rooted in Hasina’s undemocratic governance style, which became more pronounced in her final years in office.
Since her second term, Hasina sought to centralize power, suppressing opposition voices and burdening dissenters with legal cases. Her administration cracked down on political opponents, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its leader, Khaleda Zia, whom Hasina imprisoned on charges widely seen as politically motivated. Hasina’s obsession with the legacy of the 1971 Liberation War permeated her policies, from reserving government jobs for war veterans’ descendants to invoking freedom struggle memories in her rhetoric against political adversaries.
Jamaat’s role in the recent protests has been significant. The group infiltrated the protests using its network of schools and colleges, which served as breeding grounds for its ideology, allowing Jamaat to mobilize young people and transform spontaneous demonstrations into a coordinated movement against Hasina’s government. Jamaat infused the protests with religious and communal elements, consolidating opposition to Hasina along religious lines. Slogans like “Hasina, Bharoter Dalal” (Hasina, India’s stooge) polarized the protests by insinuating that her government favored India and Hindus over Bangladesh’s Muslim population.
The government’s harsh reactions, including banning Jamaat e Islami and its student wing, and the arrests and use of force against protestors, ironically played into Jamaat’s hands. Measures like enforcing curfews, shutting off internet access, and resorting to live ammunition escalated tensions, drawing criticism from both local and global corners. This heavy-handed approach solidified the perception of oppression, triggering increased radicalization among opposition groups and solidifying Jamaat’s position as a leading force against Hasina’s leadership.
Impact on South Asia and Beyond: The unrest in Bangladesh presents a challenge not only for the South Asian region but also for the global community. The recent removal of Sheikh Hasina and the potential emergence of groups like Jamaat e Islami, which has opposed Bangladesh’s core democratic principles, have raised concerns among religious minorities and progressives. Jamaat’s possible involvement in government has created doubts about the resurgence of extremist elements in Bangladesh, especially given Jamaat’s ties to organizations such as Harkat ul Jihad al Islami (HuJI) and Jamaat ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB).
The thought of Jamaat e Islami regaining power raises concerns about Bangladesh potentially becoming a breeding ground for extremist activities once more. This is especially worrisome for South Asia, as the resurgence of such groups could spark similar movements in neighboring countries, reigniting cross-border terrorism. The spread of these extremist ideologies could disrupt efforts to combat terrorism and impede economic progress, particularly in areas like India’s northeastern region.
The current political unrest in Bangladesh, if not managed, could jeopardize peace and stability in the region and hinder the region’s potential to become a manufacturing powerhouse in Asia. Projects like Padma Bridge Rail Link, the 400KV Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur tri-country transmission lines, and the transshipment terminals at Chittagong and Mongla ports are essential for enhancing connectivity and trade within South Asia. However, instability within Bangladesh may lead to project delays or cancellations, especially if a new government influenced by Islamist factions proves less cooperative with neighboring partners.
Policy Recommendations for the International Community: The transition of power to an interim government led by Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus in Bangladesh presents challenges. The top priority now is to disarm the protestors to prevent any formation of armed groups. This disarmament effort should also involve addressing grievances in a sincere manner, akin to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in South Africa. It is crucial to have a fair investigation into abuses of power during Hasina’s time in office, conducted openly to avoid the distrust seen in Lebanon after their civil war.
Subsequent free and fair elections are essential for allowing citizens to freely express their political preferences. The interim government needs to stand against anti-secular narratives and safeguard minority rights to prevent a refugee crisis with wide-reaching regional consequences.
The involvement of the international community plays a significant role in reinstating democratic processes. Heavy-handed external interventions often lead to backlash and foster anti-foreign sentiments. Therefore, it is important to handle diplomatic relations with Bangladesh thoughtfully, encouraging open dialogue while avoiding escalating tensions.
Supporting civil society is also crucial. In South Sudan, non-governmental organizations played key roles in maintaining social unity during periods of change. Collaborative efforts among South Asian countries on counterterrorism are vital, especially considering Jamaat e Islami’s involvement in extremist activities. Nations like India and Myanmar must work together with Bangladesh to prevent the kind of fragmented approaches seen in Iraq and Libya that allowed extremism to flourish.
Ensuring economic stability is another key aspect. The current crisis poses a threat to important infrastructure projects like the Padma Bridge Rail Link or ongoing negotiations on river water sharing between Indo-Bangladesh or Myanmar and Bangladesh. International financial institutions should collaborate closely with Bangladesh to ensure the continuity of these projects and promote economic inclusivity as a means to counter extremism.
Lastly, preparations should be made by the global community for a potential refugee crisis by taking lessons from humanitarian efforts seen in Syria. Effective aid delivery in Bangladesh can be ensured through remote management and strong local partnerships.
Conclusion: The current political unrest in Bangladesh fuelled by Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic rule and the resurgence of Islamist factions brings forth risks not only to the country’s stability but also to regional and global security. It is essential for world leaders to closely monitor this situation to prevent further turmoil and encourage a peaceful resolution. Stability in Bangladesh is crucial for maintaining security in South Asia, highlighting the pressing need for humanitarian support for peace and reconciliation.
Author is Assistant Editor, International Studies Quarterly (Sage Publications)