A ground-level survey of the Baghpat parliamentary constituency was conducted by India News to analyse the performance of Satya Pal Singh, the Member of Parliament from Baghpat, and to gather voters’ feedback about him.
Baghpat, with roots dating back to the Mahabharata era, has historical significance and produced leaders like Chaudhary Charan Singh, a revered Prime Minister and farmers’ champion. Dr. Satyapal Singh, currently representing Baghpat in the Lok Sabha for the Bharatiya Janata Party, inherits a politically active region with historical ties to Delhi.
The constituency, established in 1967, witnessed political shifts post-Emergency, with Chaudhary Charan Singh dominating elections. Despite the BJP’s stronghold, Baghpat remains a mix of Jat and Muslim communities. The 2024 elections are crucial, prompting an evaluation of Dr. Satyapal Singh’s performance. India News assesses this through parliamentary, ground-level performance, and a precise survey. The report card will unveil whether the MP passes or fails, crucial for Baghpat’s voters.
We assess parliamentary performance at 20%, ground-level performance at 20%, and India News’ survey at 60%. This allocation is intentional, ensuring that the genuine opinions of the people are presented prominently to the nation. With 20% for parliamentary performance and 20% for ground-level performance, each criterion is assigned a score of 2. India News’ survey, with a 60% weight, is given a score of 6.
Baghpat’s public has responded to our five questions directly. The real truth about the MP is emerging from this survey as well. More than half believe that the MP’s work is better than average. On the question of giving the MP another chance, a considerable number think that giving Satyapal Singh another chance would be the right move.
While the MP factor is significant, the Modi factor seems to be more critical for the people here. Development and the fulfilment of promises are essential for Baghpat’s public, and they rate their MP, Dr. Satyapal Singh, at 6th place with a score of 3.6, which is above average.
On the ground performance, people have given it a rating of 2 out of 10, which is less than average. This reflects a certain dissatisfaction with the MP’s on-ground activities. The survey reveals a nuanced perspective of the public, considering both the MP’s overall performance and their ground-level actions.
In the parliamentary performance assessment, Satyapal Singh has received 0.94 out of 2 points. Based on the ground performance assessment, he has received 0.92 out of 2 points. In our ground survey, the MP is being rated at 3.6 out of 6. Combining all these scores, Satyapal Singh’s overall score is 5.46 out of 10, slightly above average. Therefore, Baghpat’s public seems to be divided in their assessment of Dr. Satyapal Singh’s performance, resulting in a 50:50 outcome.
MP Report Card (Ground)
1. Are you satisfied with the work of your Member of Parliament?
A. Yes – 61.32%
B. No – 35.40%
C. Don’t know – 3.28%
2- Would you like to re-elect your current Member of Parliament?
A. Yes – 60.35%
B. No – 37.26%
C. Don’t know – 2.39%
3- If the candidate is changed, will you still vote for the same party?
A. Yes – 71.97%
B. No – 17.33%
C. Don’t know – 10.70%
4- On what basis will you vote in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections?
A. Modi factor – 32.67%
B. MP factor – 30%
C. Party factor – 32.83%
D. Don’t know – 4.50%
5- Will the Modi Factor play a role in the 2024 general elections?
A. Yes – 75.21%
B. No – 16.33%
C. Don’t know – 8.46%
MP Report Card (Parliament)
Presence in Parliament 96%
Questions in the House 1%
Utilization of MP Fund 67%
Special Contributions 25%
Parliament Rating (2) 0.94/2
Dr. Satyapal Singh’s Rating (Out of 10)
Parliamentary Performance 0.94/2
Ground Performance 0.92/2
India News Survey 3.6/6
Report Card Result 5.46/10
Dr. Satyapal Singh’s Report Card
TOTAL MARKS 10
5.46 10
RESULT 50:50
Voter Demographics
Male: 51%
Female: 49%
Rural: 25%
Urban: 75%
Jat: 25%
SC: 14%
Muslim: 22%
Gurjar: 7%
Rajput: 7%
Yadav: 3%
Tyagi: 4%
State Assembly Seats (5)
Sivalkhas
Chaprauli
Baraut
Bagpat
Modinagar
Basis of Report Card Result (Out of 10 points)
Parliamentary Performance:
Criteria: Parliamentary Display
Weight: 20%
Score: 2 points
Ground Performance:
Criteria: Ground Display
Weight: 20%
Score: 2 points
Main Survey:
Criteria: Main Survey
Weight: 60%
Score: 6 points