An election is supposed to be the most virtuous jubilee in any vibrant democracy, but Holi seems to have preponed its arrival at least by a week for the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) as the buzzing excitement was palpable with the party workers dancing to popular tunes and throwing gulaal at each other.
The BJP on Thursday stormed back to power in Uttar Pradesh, bulldozing a resurgent rainbow coalition led by the Samajwadi Party (SP), and retained Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa. However, Arvind Kejriwal led-Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) scripted a stellar victory in Punjab, winning a three-fourth majority and giving a humiliating defeat to its rivals in its maiden win in the state.
Bulldozers real as well as miniature versions were at the centre stage of the celebrations at the BJP office in the state capital as they figured in the poll campaign in a reference to the action taken against criminals and what the state government calls buildings linked to the ‘mafia’. SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, a former chief minister, had called Adityanath a ‘Bulldozer baba’. The scene at party Head Quarter at Lucknow is under reference as an incumbent government returned to power in UP after thirty-seven long years with the saffron party riding on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magical charisma and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s spectacular show in effective implementation of welfare policies and ceaseless campaign against crimes and criminals to script a “new history”.
Apart from the remarkable win in UP, the BJP also managed to retain the grip over three other states that voted in this season. Of course, the revolutionary mandate in Punjab presents an absolute occasion for celebration to the AAP, at the same time whether this endorsement foretells a possible reckoning churn in opposition camps would become clearer only in days to come.
By registering a sweeping victory in Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal has not only expanded beyond the home turf of Delhi which is in alignment with his pitch for national aspiration but also sent a convincing siren to the Congress and company about the former’s potential formidable positioning, if at all against the Juggernaut of BJP ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Technically the AAP and the Congress are of equal status as both have two states each consequent to Punjab slipping off the latter’s control. The AAP believes it’s on its organic way to become the natural replacement of the Congress at a national level.
It’s quite evident, the so-called anti-incumbency swing and much-glorified charm attached to the high decibel campaign by the Gandhi siblings as a combination stands smaller as compared to the pairing of good governance offered by the state machinery and Modi’s unrelenting popularity.
A STATE LEVEL DIPSTICK STUDY.
UTTAR PRADESH
The BJP’s showing in UP also indicated that the devastating second Covid wave last year and the intense protests by farmers against the three contentious farm laws, which was subsequently withdrawn, did not appear to have any major impact on the fortunes of the saffron party. In fact, the BJP won in the bulk of the 113 seats in western UP where it was thought to be on a sticky wicket. In UP, the BJP’s vote share rose to 41.8% as against 39.67% in 2017 assembly elections, an increase of 2.13% though the number of won seats fell by 57.
The SP, which made a vigorous bid for power with Akhilesh Yadav attracting huge crowds at campaign rallies failed to unseat Yogi and the BSP once ruling the state barely made a campaign splash witnessed crushing defeat. The BSP of Mayawati, a four-time Chief Minister, was all but obliterated with just one seat despite polling 12.87% of the votes.
BJP’s impressive win also had a tinge of loss, as Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya tasted defeat in Sirathu.
But the takeaway remains the oppositions’ narrative terribly failed against the assurance of a double-engine growth inscription.
PUNJAB
While the BJP has won four states suggesting its governance model has the stamp of people’s approval, Punjab has listened to Mann-ki-Baat as the AAP registers landslide victory. On a side note, from a comedian to the chief minister-designate, Mann, who has come a long way in a political career of just over a decade, will have a boss who oversees a smaller administrative territory. The BJP increased its vote share in almost all the states that went to polls including a marginal rise in Punjab, where it just managed to win two seats.
The strong AAP wave in Punjab saw many bigwigs losing including the SAD chief Sukhbir Singh Badal, Parkash Singh Badal, Congress’ Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi from both the seats he contested, former Chief Minister Amarinder Singh who left the Congress to join hands with the BJP and Punjab Congress president Navjot Singh Sidhu.
The elections dealt a body blow to the Shiromani Akali Dal, which ruled the state several times, its top-notch leaders fell by the wayside.
In the 117-member Punjab Assembly, the AAP’s broom swept away its rivals and won 92 seats, followed by Congress (18), SAD (3) and BJP (2).
The BSP and Independent candidates won one seat each. In terms of vote share, the AAP won 42% of the total votes cast, as against 23.7% it had five years ago.
The Congress vote share slumped in Punjab from 38.5% in 2017 to 23%, with the party holding on to just 18 seats as against 77 seats it had won five years back.
Not to forget, in the 2017 assembly polls in Punjab, the Congress had ended the SAD-BJP combine’s run by bagging 77 seats. The AAP had managed to get 20 seats, while the SAD-BJP had won 18.
GOA
Belying predictions of a fractured mandate, Goa Chief Minister Pramod Sawant has been able to deliver victory for the BJP which is coming to power for the third consecutive term. The BJP won 33.31% votes and rival Congress, which secured 11 seats, pocketed 23.46%.
Overcoming anti-incumbency, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in Goa by winning 20 seats, just one shy of the halfway mark.
However, the BJP claims to have enlisted the support of regional outfit the MGP, which won two seats, and three Independent MLAs to form its government.
By the way, the 2022 election was a hat-trick for the BJP in Goa albeit the original success was co-crafted by late Manohar Parrikar the Goa’s strongman of yesteryears.
UTTARAKHAND
The BJP won big in Uttarakhand getting 47 seats to retain power in the 70-member Assembly even as incumbent CM Pushkar Singh Dhami lost by 6,579 votes in Khatima, a seat he had been winning for the last two consecutive elections.
Throwing a spirited challenge to the BJP as the Congress poll campaign head for the state, Harish Rawat, a former chief minister, could not pilot the party’s return to power in the state nor could he save his own seat of Lalkuwa.
In Uttarakhand, the BJP is all set to form a second successive government, the first in the state’s 21-year history. The saffron party clinched 47 seats, 11 more than the magic figure of 36, with a vote share of 44.34%. However, Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami lost, forcing the BJP to jog its mind and find a suitable candidate for the top post. The Congress won 18 seats with a vote share of 37.91%, while others secured five seats.
MANIPUR
The BJP won a simple majority in insurgency-hit Manipur, where it bagged 32 of 60 seats, having won 37.83% votes. Its partners in the Northeast Democratic Alliance (NEDA), the northeastern version of the NDA the NPP and NPF which fought separately, secured seven and five seats respectively, while Bihar ally Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) won six seats.
The Congress, which gave three successive governments to the state since 2002 before the so-called BJP engineered large-scale defections to form its government in 2017, could win just five seats with 16.83% votes.
The BJP ran a coalition government with the National People’s Party and the Naga People’s Front in Manipur, but it’s still unclear whether the two parties will share power in the new dispensation helmed by N. Biren Singh.
The first set of assembly elections in 2022, could be perceived as a pointer to general elections two years away. Besides the AAP’s grabbing Punjab which is a steppingstone out of Delhi is another high point of this season.
The outcome is seen as a barometer of people’s mood also saw the Congress’ epitaph written on the electoral battlefield. A debilitated Congress now rules only Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
As the BJP retained its grip over the four states, further fortifying its positions ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the AAP not only wrested Punjab from the Congress which lay shorn of power in yet another state, adding to a string of electoral losses, but also has been successful in ruthlessly pulverising all its rivals including the original regional party, the SAD.
Sympathisers of the BJP hailed the victories, particularly of the UP’s scale as an emphatic endorsement of BJP’s pro-poor and pro-active governance and a vote for political stability.
Also holding ground in Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand further add to the morale of the jubilant workers of the BJP for the upcoming elections.
The spectacular rise of AAP outside Delhi, with an unprecedented mandate in Punjab and a toehold in Goa where it bagged two seats, certainly foretells a big likely churn in the opposition camp.
As regards the Congress the grand old party, it not only lost Punjab miserably, with both the state’s Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi and party chief Navjot Singh Sidhu biting the dust, it could win only two seats in UP notwithstanding the high-decibel campaign by Rahul and Priyanka. As a consequence of the rout, Congress now is in the same league as the AAP, which will also helm two states, further losing its standing among anti-BJP parties contemplating a broad-based coalition against the saffron party ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Sabyasachee Dash is a columnist in various media outlets.
Sympathisers of the BJP hailed the victories, particularly of the UP’s scale as an emphatic endorsement of BJP’s pro-poor and pro-active governance and a vote for political stability. the BJP for the upcoming elections.