The Election Commission of India (ECI) earlier this week officially unveiled the timetable for the 2023 Assembly Elections in five states: Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram. These elections are set to unfold between 7 and 30 November, with the crucial vote counting taking place on 3 December across all five states.
This electoral spectacle promises to be a semi-political showdown between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the coalition of Opposition parties known as the I.N.D.I.A. alliance, a prelude or “semi-finals” of sorts to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, the BJP and Congress, the primary contenders, are poised for direct confrontations, while the BJP faces a challenge to assert dominance in Telangana and Mizoram.
To gauge the electoral pulse, ABP News and CVoter conducted extensive surveys, collecting voter preferences in these five poll-bound states.
MADHYA PRADESH
According to the ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll data, the incumbent BJP and the Congress are in a tight race, with the saffron party holding a slender 0.1% lead over the grand old party in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress commands a 44.6% vote share, while the BJP is just ahead with a 44.7% share in this Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led state. The BSP holds 2.1% of the votes, while other parties and independent candidates collectively secure an 8.6% share in the opinion poll. The survey predicts that Congress may clinch between 113 to 125 seats out of the 230 constituencies, while the BJP is expected to secure 104 to 116 seats.
RAJASTHAN
In the upcoming Rajasthan Elections 2023, the survey forecasts that the BJP is poised to claim 127 to 137 constituencies in the 200-member Assembly, whereas the Congress is anticipated to secure between 59 to 69 seats with a 42% vote share. It is worth noting that the majority mark for forming the government in Rajasthan is 101, making it a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party, as indicated by the opinion poll.
CHHATTISGARH
Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections will be held in two phases on 7 and 17 November, with vote counting scheduled for 3 December. The ABP-CVoter opinion poll suggests a tough political battle between the Congress and BJP in Chhattisgarh. The BJP is expected to win around 39 to 45 seats out of the 90 constituencies, while the Congress is likely to secure 45 to 51 seats. Other parties are projected to claim only 0 to 2 seats. According to the survey, the ruling Congress is expected to garner over 45% of the votes in Chhattisgarh, closely followed by the BJP with a 43% vote share.
TELANGANA
The opinion poll data signals that the BJP is unlikely to establish a significant presence in Telangana, where elections are scheduled for later this year. The BJP is projected to win only 5 to 11 seats out of 119 constituencies, despite the high-profile campaigns led by PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. A fierce political contest is expected between BRS and Congress, with both parties poised to secure 43 to 55 and 48 to 60 seats, respectively. The ABP-CVoter survey reveals that Congress is likely to capture nearly 39% of the vote share, followed by BRS at 37% and BJP at 16%.
MIZORAM
The ABP-CVoter opinion poll data indicates that Mizoram is likely to witness a hung assembly, with no single political party securing an outright majority in the northeastern state’s assembly elections. Out of the total 40 seats, the Congress is expected to win between 10 to 14 seats, the MNF may secure 13 to 17 constituencies, followed by ZPM with 9 to 13 seats, and others likely to secure 1 to 3 seats in Mizoram.