The Indian embassy staff in Kabul were evacuated and brought back to the country on Tuesday. India was the latest to join the long list of countries scrambling to get out of Afghanistan post the takeover of Kabul by the Taliban. Interestingly, the embassies in Kabul continuing to function normally and with the promise of full security from the Taliban are that of China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan. In this tiny detail can be seen the not-so-hidden contours of an emerging alliance that will have geopolitical consequences beyond the borders of Afghanistan. In the immediate context, these four countries believe that there is a convergence of their interests in the withdrawal of the United States and the capture of Afghanistan by the Taliban. They think that with the established superpower out of Afghanistan, they will be the main players in the next “great game” in a country that has $3 trillion worth of mineral wealth. However, not only is this “alliance” beset with several contradictions, in Afghanistan, it is also hobbled by a strong element of uncertainty. The pressure points are many, including a Shia Iran vs Sunni Pakistan and a Sunni Taliban; Islamic countries vs an atheist China that treats Muslims like non-humans; the rump of Soviet Russia vs the progenies of the Mujahideen that defeated them; Russia’s pride in its past and its discomfiture at being a vassal state of China; Russia’s contest with China for influence over what Moscow sees as its backyard in Central Asia, as well as in the polar region; China’s imperial overreach; and the very real problem of doing business with ideologically driven extremists who have several hardened terrorists, including from the ISIS and Al Qaeda, in their ranks.
The only glue that binds all the “players” together is Chinese cash, apart from the authoritarian nature of their governments. All these vassal states of China are bankrupt, which gives Beijing ample scope to lure them with money, capture their assets and establish its influence in the region and beyond, as it tries to build an anti-western bloc in its attempt to overtake the US as the world’s sole superpower. Even the marauders like the Taliban are apparently ready to behave for the sake of Chinese cash. But stability/peace is a precondition for any business and that commodity is scarce in Afghanistan, even though the terrorists who were triggering the violence, are now in power. Hence, Beijing may discover to its dismay that it is easier supping with the Devil than with the Taliban.
China has already got dragged into the Af-Pak quagmire because of its investments in Pakistan. The billions of dollars it has spent trying to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are most likely sunk, with the corridor beset with corruption, in the crosshairs of terrorist groups and nowhere near completion. China is losing both man and money in the CPEC. When your “iron brother”, Pakistan, based on whose words you have ventured into this region, cannot enforce peace in its own territory, how will it do so in a neighbouring country ruled by a highly volatile group of extremists? Beijing knows this. Hence, its constant insistence that Pakistan must deliver on stability, the Taliban must eschew violence and not allow its territory to be used by terror groups directed against China. While the Taliban pay lip service to China’s concerns, and try to put up a “reformed and moderate” face to the world, at least in Kabul, it’s a different story in the provinces from where news is coming about excesses being committed by the radical militia.
Also, as the Taliban are realizing, Afghanistan has changed in the last 20 years. Afghans, however religious they might be, are not willing to sacrifice their individual identity—as the citizens of a “modern” state—or their national identity at the altar of a Taliban-carved religious identity. A case in point are Wednesday’s protests in Jalalabad, where local Afghans would not allow the Taliban to replace Afghanistan’s national flag with a Taliban flag. In response, the Taliban resorted to firing, killing at least two people. Governance does not sit easy with men who are programmed to oppress, to muzzle and to kill—and these are the people who are supposed to implement China’s diktat on the ground. China’s pitch will be further queered even if a small resistance movement takes shape and if the international community delays recognizing the Taliban government as legitimate. All the more reason why the democratic world should delay giving recognition to the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate government.
Time will tell, but the bottom line is that Afghanistan is not the best springboard for the alliance of the authoritarians to take off.