The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a few years ago, declared its mission to expand beyond its footprints in the national capital. In January 2021, the party announced it will contest in all six state elections scheduled for 2022, which are Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Goa, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, and Punjab. The AAP has been vigorously campaigning in these states. Bhagwant Mann was announced as its chief ministerial face for the Punjab Assembly elections and Goa-based lawyer turned politician Amit Palekar as its Chief Ministerial candidate for the state last week. Since its inception in 2012, the AAP has contested Assembly elections in at least 14 states outside of Delhi. It has, however, failed to win even one seat in 13 states. So far, the only state outside of Delhi where the party tasted victory was in Punjab in 2017, where it won 20 seats and is currently the main opposition party. While the AAP’s intense campaigning in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh is unlikely to have a huge impact on the electoral results of the states, the party is pitched to influence the results in Goa and Punjab. The party, which has been pedalling its “Delhi Model” of governance, including free provision of water and electricity (up to a fixed number of units) and improved health and education infrastructure, has made very similar promises in the four states along with a new strategy of defections from other parties.
BHAGWANT MANN IN PUNJAB
On 18 January 2022, the AAP announced Bhagwant Mann as its chief ministerial face for the Punjab Assembly elections. While Mann was probably always the chosen candidate for the Chief Ministerial face of the party, the AAP delayed this announcement, launching a crowd-surfing campaign and urging Punjab voters to decide the party’s Chief Ministerial face. Mann, who is currently the Member of Parliament (MP) for the Sangrur constituency, has been one of AAP’s most consistent leaders in the state and has been the party’s state chief for almost five years. He will be contesting from the Dhuri Assembly constituency this election, which is in the Malwa region of the state. The Dhuri assembly segment falls under Mann’s Lok Sabha constituency, Sangrur, and had helped him garner the maximum number of votes in the 2019 general election.
In 2014 during the general election, Mann was not only able to deflate the Modi wave in Punjab, but also won the seat by a margin of over two lakh votes (19.24% vote share margin) and a vote share of 48.47 percent despite the presence of the Indian National Congress (INC) and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) candidates. He won the seat again in 2019 and was the only AAP candidate who retained a Lok Sabha seat during the general election. Considered one of Punjab’s most popular politicians, his rallies and public gatherings draw huge crowds – he has the ability to turn political speeches into gripping stage performances due to his background as a household comedian prior to his stint in politics.
Punjab is divided into three main regions, and the AAP’s decision to declare Mann as the chief ministerial candidate from Malwa, which has 69 seats in around 12 districts, is definitely a strategic one – the region, nestled between the Satluj and Ghaggar rivers, has had a monopoly over the state’s Chief Ministers for the last three decades.
In the 2017 Assembly elections, the AAP came in second in Punjab, securing a vote share of around 23.7 per cent as compared to the ruling Congress which secured 38.5 per cent of the votes in the state. As per figures by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), which mines electoral data, in 2017, the AAP got 30 per cent of the Jatt Sikh farmer votes against the Congress’ 28 per cent. The Jatt Sikhs, who are Punjab’s landowning community comprise about 20 per cent of its population and dominate its politics. However, the voter groups of Punjabi Hindus and Dalit Sikhs were inclined towards the INC in higher numbers. The party’s main challenge in 2022 lies in appeasing these two voter groups, especially with the Congress’ decision to make Charanjit Singh Channi the CM candidate to appease the considerable Dalit voter group.
As per current opinion polls, the Punjab elections are likely to be a three-pronged battle between the major parties in Punjab – INC, AAP, and SAD. As per the Zee News opinion polls, the AAP and Congress are likely to be in a neck-to-neck fight. The poll predicts that out of the total 117 seats in Punjab, AAP is expected to secure around 36 to 39 seats. As per the poll, despite a massive lead in vote share and number of seats, AAP may not get an absolute majority in Punjab. The Polstrat – NewsX opinion poll also predicts a similar seat share for AAP (52-55 seats), INC (42-45 seats) and SAD (17-20 seats). However, the poll conducted by Jan ki Baat-India News shows AAP emerging as the single largest party in the state, by winning 58-65 seats in the 117-member assembly. With a popular candidate as the CM face, a long exhaustive list of promises, attack campaigns against other parties, and its Delhi model of governance, the AAP is leaving no stone unturned in Punjab in an attempt to establish electoral dominance. While the party is likely to make a huge dent in the Assembly elections, it is yet to be seen whether its attempts will be successful in pushing it to emerge as the single largest party in the state.
AMIT PALEKAR IN GOA
On 19 January 2022, the AAP announced Amit Palekar as its Chief Ministerial candidate from Goa, who will contest the elections from the St Cruz constituency. Palekar is a prominent lawyer in the state and has been practising for the last 22 years. However, he is a newcomer in politics. Palekar is also a social activist – he has been vocal about corruption in the state, participated in hunger strikes, and worked to support the state during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. He belongs to the Bhandari Samaj, a numerically strong community among Goa’s Other Backward Caste (OBC) community. In November 2021, the AAP announced that its CM face would be from the Bhandari community.
Out of 11 lakh voters in the state, around 3,50,000 voters belong to the Bhandari Samaj community, which is around 30 per cent of the total voter base. In addition to this, the second-largest voter group in the state are Christians who comprise around 26 per cent of the population. If both the Bhandaris and Christian voter groups support a party, it wins roughly 50 per cent of the votes in Goa. The AAP has taken its approach to target these two voter groups one step further by announcing that its Deputy Chief Minister candidate from the state will be Christian. The AAP’s Goa campaign is hinged on three primary factors: national convener and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s image, inducting popular leaders from other parties, and promising various social-welfare schemes. The party is also engaged in door-to-door campaigning in the state and is conducting a “Parivartan Yatra’’ daily along with its announcement of a 13-point development agenda for the coastal state.
In the last Assembly elections in Goa in 2017, the AAP made an ambitious debut campaign and pitched 39 candidates. However, the party failed to secure a single seat and was able to secure only 6.3 per cent of the vote share. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) polled the maximum votes in the state, securing 32.48 per cent of the votes and 13 seats, while the Congress won 28.35 per cent votes and 17 seats. Despite not being able to emerge as the single largest party, the BJP was able to retain control of the state in 2017. According to the Times Now opinion poll, the BJP is likely to win 17-21 seats in Goa and will be able to secure a majority mark. The AAP on the other hand is slated to win around 8-11 seats in the 40-member assembly. Similarly, the ABP News-Team CVoter poll predicts around 19-23 seats for the BJP, 5-9 seats for the AAP, and 4-8 seats for the INC. The Polstrat – NewsX opinion poll also predicts a similar seat share with the BJP winning 21-25 seats, AAP winning 6-9 seats and INC winning 4-6 seats. As per various opinion polls, while the BJP is probably going to emerge as the single largest party in the state, it is not clear whether it will be able to pass the majority mark, and will likely have to rely on the support of other parties to establish its victory in the state.
Contributing reports by Damini Mehta, Junior Research Associate at Polstrat and Anurag Anand, Narayani Bhatnagar, Suvidhi Jain, Interns at Polstrat.