Aiming for a hattrick in Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party has made its intentions clear by declaring its first list of nominees for the Assembly polls, thus sending a clear signal to its opponents that it was fully prepared to take them on. The first AAP list has mostly the names of those who joined the party and were being fielded against their former colleagues. There is a two-fold objective behind this early declaration, the first being that the AAP is conscious of the BJP’s Operation Lotus plans and thus has shielded its top leaders while giving tickets to new entrants, who have no other place to go. It is most unlikely that anyone of the nominees shall defect to any other party at this stage, and the list includes the son of former Congress strongman, Chaudhury Matin, who shall be the AAP candidate from Seelampur, a pre-dominant Muslim seat. Most political pundits had believed that the minority dominated seats would be won by the Congress since going by the voting pattern of the Parliamentary elections, the Muslims had voted for the grand old party. However, by inducting Matin’s son, the AAP is now going to be a serious challenger and could even win.
The Muslims by and large have been of the view that it was important to beat the Saffron brigade and whichever party was most suitable in achieving this objective, they would support it. Although things have changed over the past few months, the Muslim votes cannot be taken for granted by anyone, particularly the Congress whose Delhi president Devendra Yadav seems busy with his padyatras rather than focusing on the strategy. The Congress should have ensured that defections to AAP should have been prevented. It is a costly mistake which would influence the outcome, if strong remedial measures are not taken on time. The AAP has been wary of BJP’s designs, after Kailash Gehlot, a minister in the city government recently resigned from the party and joined the BJP, the following day. This kind of activity concerning other key leaders is also not ruled out, and therefore, the AAP leadership has to be extremely cautious from now onwards. The BJP has expressed surprise that the AAP list does not include the names of known leaders including Chief Minister Atishi Singh and some others. The exclusion of sure shot names has given rise to speculation that some of the top functionaries of the party could be changing their constituencies. For instance, Atishi had won by a small margin from Kalkaji in 2020 and needs to win big to send a message across the parties. Manish Sisodia, is a key player in AAP and may find the going tough in Patparganj where the BJP is quite strong. There is no such issue with Arvind Kejriwal who shall represent the New Delhi seat and is likely to sail home comfortably. However, there is a question mark over the winnability of some other leaders and the party shall have to take a view on the seats which would be most suitable for them. While the general opinion is that the AAP was in a pole position to once again form the government, notwithstanding the scams that have rocked its government and impacted its image, it is to be seen whether it can repeat its outstanding performances during the past two elections.
The AAP may lose seats and its tally could come down, particularly since the BJP is all geared up to take the AAP on in order to overcome the jinx of defeats since its victory in 1993. The Congress which had collapsed after it supported Arvind Kejriwal during his brief stint as the CM in 2013, is also hoping to bounce back and open its tally which was nil both in 2015 and 2020. In the triangular contest that is likely to take place, the AAP’s chances would be dependent on the performance of the Congress. If the Congress is not able to catch the imagination of the people, it would help AAP win easily. However, if the Congress does well, the BJP shall be the ultimate gainer. Unfortunately for the BJP, there is no clear face who can be projected for the Chief Ministership. There are many leaders, but no one is charismatic enough and who can take on the AAP challenge head on. Same is the case with the Congress which has tired functionaries seeking tickets for either themselves or their sons or daughters. The current party chief is working hard but the party may have to think clearly on whether he can be projected as the CM face. Congress treasurer Ajay Maken, is from a known political family and could have been the face. However, he is the treasurer and now has his ambitions nationally rather than in Delhi. In the BJP, it would have been a good idea to showcase Arvinder Singh Lovely, who had defected from the Congress to the Saffron Brigade during the parliamentary elections. But he is a reluctant participant in day to day activities and has been maintaining a low profile. Lovely is a Punjabi face who can click with both Hindus and Sikhs. It is a complex situation that has emerged and the contest is likely to be fought on the issue of statehood of Delhi, a demand supported by the BJP earlier and could be the main plank of the AAP. The question would be on whether the elected representatives should be subservient to those who are appointees of the central government. The elections are eagerly awaited.