For DMK and its president M.K. Stalin, 2 May has been the super Sunday he has been waiting for. The longest-serving understudy to his father and DMK patriarch M. Karunanidhi for nearly five decades, Thalapathi as he is fondly called by his supporters and cadres looked set to form the government in Tamil Nadu after the DMK alliance appeared set to win a comfortable majority in the Assembly elections.
As leads firmed up on early Sunday evening, the DMK-plus was poised to cross the 150-mark in the 234-member House, polling for which was held in April, leaving no one in doubt that Stalin is the next Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu after results and trends of counting of votes pointed to a comfortable victory for DMK and alliance partners. His victory was always on cards, especially after he swept the Lok Sabha elections winning all but one of the 39 seats in 2019 at the height of the Narendra Modi wave that engulfed the nation at that time.
Since nothing much has changed on the ground since then, in issues and narratives, the DMK was expected to do very well in the Assembly elections as was predicted in a spate of pre-poll surveys and later by exit polls.
But even without the help of any surveys, media persons with an ear to the ground were certain of a change in Tamil Nadu as the AIADMK government was perceived commonly as one that was remote-controlled by the BJP from the Centre, which was also seen as anti-Tamil Nadu when it came to a host of issues, whether it was NEET, farmers’ agitation, hydrocarbon project of GAIL, or even GST dues.
If not anything, Stalin managed to mount a potent campaign on these issues, painting the Centre as the villain of the piece and built a perception that the EPS government was functioning against the interests of Tamil Nadu. For good measure, he invoked Tamil pride and the language issue for good measure that ensured a solid connection with the masses in the state that takes pride in the richness of its language and culture.
Along with such a narrative, Stalin mounted a good, high-pitched, and scorching campaign early on and had covered almost all the constituencies twice over before the elections were announced. And clearly, he was decisive enough to fend off demands for more seats from the alliance partners, and at one stage it appeared that Congress could go away as it found the 25 allotted to it as an “insult”. Stalin stuck to his stand, and convinced Congress citing its poor strike rate in the previous 2016 elections when the Congress could win a mere 8 from the 48 it contested.
As the leads show, his decision appeared to be bang on, and even the Congress strike rate improved with leads in 16 seats out of the 25 it contested. For sure, another key decision that helped in his victory was securing the services of political campaign strategist Prashant Kishor, who rebuilt and rebranded the leader and helped in mounting a powerful electoral narrative and prepared an action plan to convey the message to the masses effectively.
Seems like Stalin’s style of politics too received the stamp of approval of the masses. Somewhat tired of the AIADMK government and itching for a change, they found in Stalin a viable proposition and they were willing to give him a chance. In a highly politically aware state, people do remember Stalin’s firm stand of not toppling the AIADMK government when it was undergoing a crisis after a revolt by its senior leader O. Panneerselvam and instead declared that he wanted to come into power through the right royal way—something he did on 2May2021.
But it is a throne of thorns that awaits Stalin and top on the list is to handle the Covid-19 pandemic that is raging on in the state. Already, the Chief Minister-to-be has announced vaccination at doorstep, something that his government will take up immediately once he gets sworn in.
To be fair, Chief Minister and AIADMK leader Edapaddi Palanswami handled the Covid-19 crisis effectively and had tried his best to deliver governance. But where he and the AIADMK lost out is in the perception battle, that the party and government were subservient to the BJP.
More important, Stalin will be tested heavily on how he deals with the Central government now that he will be the Chief Minister. Having mounted a shrill campaign against the BJP and the Centre, Stalin will be very closely watched by the people and the AIADMK, as to how he manages to forge a working relationship with the Central government.
The victory of Stalin in a battle of the two Dravidian parties makes it very clear that Tamil Nadu remains a two-horse race notwithstanding the tall talk of a third and a new alternative to these old political forces. The fate of the political party—Makkal Neethi Maiyam—floated by superstar Kamal Haasan is a case in question. He came a cropper,with his party failing to open its account. Perhaps, the other superstar, Rajinikanth, assessed the situation accurately and opted out of the political arena, not unlike cricket Saurav Ganguly whom the BJP was keen to rope in as its face for West Bengal.
The two icons had health issues to contend with as well, and cited the same to refrain from entering the political arena. To be fair, Ganguly never expressed a desire to enter politics, but Rajinikanth flirted with the idea often and had even announced the formation of a political party and contesting elections. But he pulled out just ahead of elections.