Has Nitish Kumar emerged a winner from the recent Bihar polls. Yes, he has certainly managed to save his chief ministerial chair, and considering that he survives a 15-year anti-incumbency, it is a no mean feat. But there is a larger question at play here. He is no longer the leader of the larger party in the alliance. Two, he no longer has his favourite man in the BJP by his side, as Sushil Modi has not been made Deputy CM again. In all probability, the former Deputy CM will be accommodated in the Cabinet at the Centre, leaving the state leadership in the hands of two lightweight Deputy CMs. With the BJP having a larger chunk of seats, the state will be run by the Centre and Nitish Kumar will have to deal with the likes of Bhupender Yadav (the all-powerful general secretary close to Amit Shah). Three, the CM will be facing a resurgent RJD on the floor of the House. Tejashwi Yadav may have lost the elections but he has emerged as the man of the match leading his party to become the single-largest party in the Assembly. Unless he does a Rahul Gandhi (i.e., a shoot-and-scoot model of leadership), Tejashwi has all the potential to use his stint in the Opposition to emerge as Bihar’s tallest leader. He will do so standing on Nitish Kumar’s slightly hunched (metaphorically speaking) back.
Add to this the pressure of Nitish Kumar having announced that this was his last election. Which means if he wants to leave a legacy, then now is about the right time to do so. Nitish Kumar who took office talking about “Sushashan (governance) Raj” now needs to deliver on these words. To be fair, the state of Bihar has come a long way from Lalu Prasad Yadav›s Jungle Raaj but the CM still has miles to go. More than his own legacy, he also has to deliver on the BJP’s manifesto promise of 19 lakh jobs. While Tejashwi did have some sort of a plan as to how he would deliver on the 10 lakh government jobs he had promised, the BJP and the JD(U) are still to let us know their blueprint. And that too in the times of Covid-19 and reverse migration. More so as it was the BJP and not Nitish that upped the figure on jobs from Tejashwi›s 10 lakh to 19 lakh—Nitish’s reaction to Tejashwi›s figure was a counter asking him how he planned to raise Rs 50,000 crore to provide the 10 lakh government jobs. Nitish should know how tough the delivery will be. In fact, when over 32.6 lakh migrants returned to the state during lockdown, as the state CM then, he had promised jobs banking on MNREGA and the PM›s Garib Kalyan Yojana. But these did not deliver the requisite employment because of bureaucratic corruption and other red tape. These hurdles still remain. The state government’s plans to set up skill development centres and small-scale manufacturing units also did not take off prior to the polls. Nitish will have to revamp these to meet the skill level of the migrant labour that has returned back to the state. He will also have to focus on wooing industry to a state that still hasn’t tackled its law and order situation enough to woo investors. He also has to create industrial land banks for manufacturing units. Bihar has 5,000 acres of industrial area but this has not yet been developed.
And lastly, Nitish Kumar knows that he is in office with an ally that is not just waiting for him to trip but also actively tried to trip him by propping up Chirag Paswan’s LJP. While young Paswan may not have been able to deliver on the seats he did deliver on his role as a spoiler. Analysts say that without Chirag splitting his vote the JD(U) would have got as much as 15 to 20 more seats. What could be more humiliating for a CM who presided himself on his Sushaashan Raaj to have to campaign on the achievements of the Prime Minister and not his own track record? For if you recall towards the end of the campaign, the CM became a mouthpiece for the BJP and not the other way around. And this was a campaign that began with the BJP leaving out Nitish Kumar›s picture from its posters.
Hence, he may have won the election but he has certainly lost the battle. Heavy is the head that wears the crown.