The Election Commission has geared up to conduct Assembly elections in five states—Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Manipur, and Goa, starting from 10 February and concluding on 7 March. As the election dates draw nearer, let’s look at the various political equations and situations that prevail in these states.
According to a pre-poll survey conducted by ABP-Cvoter, BJP is likely to enjoy a comfortable victory in the UP Assembly elections. Although the survey mentions that there is likely to be a fall in seat share for the ruling party, which, however, will not be impacting the overall results. Despite his best efforts to consolidate the traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank, Akhilesh Yadav seems to be falling short of getting a majority. Another issue that he faces is the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) supremo Asaduddin Owaisi, who is resolute to contest elections without aligning with Samajwadi Party. While the opposition camp is divided, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has created an aura of good governance in the state where a few years ago, Gundaraaj seemed to be one of its defining characters. Not only new welfare policies are announced for the benefit of everyone in the society, but also they are properly implemented without any preferential treatment to anybody. Mayawati, the four-time Chief Minister of UP, seems to be missing in action and both BJP and SP are trying to woo Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) votes. Although during the last UP election, there was a buzz for ‘Bua-Babua’ coalition, this time it has been swept under the rug. All major players including the Samajwadi Party, and the Congress have decided to go it alone in the upcoming state elections and are rather trying to join hands with smaller caste-based parties.
Everyone is keeping a close eye on this year’s Punjab state elections. A few months ago, while Congress under Captain Amarinder Singh was looking for an easy victory, things dramatically changed for both the party and the veteran politician due to the recent upheavals. The Congress central leadership is usually busy keeping the delicate peace between CM Channi and party state President Navjot Singh Siddhu. Party insiders feel that while Siddhu may be able to appeal to the Sikh votes with his antics, in the long run, this may create trouble for the party as it may end up losing substantial support of the Hindu votes. There is also the issue of the next CM candidate for the Congress party. Although, the party is going ahead with the ‘collective leadership’ stand, but in reality, there are too many fractures and unless they are mended quickly, the result may be a surprise for many. While Congress faces many hurdles, BJP isn’t going to have any smooth ride in the state. Recent farmers’ protests where the majority of the support came from Punjab, is a cause of concern for the party. While PM Modi tried to defuse the situation in the best way possible, the recent blockade of his convoy shows that the issue has still not died down. One thing that is currently working in favour of BJP is the growing proximity with Capt. Amarinder Singh, who many predict to be the key in this Punjab election. Meanwhile, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is seen as another challenger to mainstream political parties. The outstanding performance of the AAP in Chandigarh municipal corporation elections, has given high hopes to AAP in Punjab. However, the issue with AAP is that of a power tussle between the central leadership and state leaders. Although AAP’s national convener Arvind Kejriwal announced Bhagwant Mann as the party’s chief ministerial candidate for Punjab, there are times in the past when Arvind Kejriwal was at loggerheads with him. The issue has mellowed down for now but only time will tell what lies ahead.
The majority of the opinion polls predict the incumbent BJP to retain power in the hilly state of Uttarakhand. According to a survey, CM Pushkar Singh Dhami is the most preferred candidate by the people for the post of chief minister of the state. While many believe that the frequent change in the chief ministers, three within a span of four months, may hurt BJP, many believe that CM Dhami is going to be the ace of cards, who will steer BJP to victory. Congress and AAP are both facing the serious issue of internal turmoil. Although Congress is going to the election under the leadership of former Chief Minister Harish Rawat, he is still not declared as the party’s chief ministerial face. He still remains the most popular face of the party among the people. AAP has put Col Ajay Kothiyal as its CM candidate, but his popularity in the state doesn’t seem to be anywhere near to those of other CM candidates.
Goa is known for its volatile political developments and with the state polls drawing near, things are going to get interesting soon. The biggest development in the political atmosphere of Goa is the latest entrance of Mamata Bannerjee led Trinamool Congress (TMC). TMC has allied with the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), which has a traditional Hindu vote bank that might dent the BJP’s prospects in some constituencies in the upcoming poll. Mamata and other Trinamool leaders have been pointing to similarities between Goa and Bengal. Besides the anti-incumbency factor, the BJP has been reeling under several issues including handling of Covid-19 pandemic in the state. However, it will be a mistake to rule BJP out of the contest, as the party has proven in the past where it came to power in the state despite not being the single largest party. The strength of BJP lies in its strong cadre and organization, unlike its rivals. This helps them to connect at the grassroots level and influence the people.
The political situation in the northeastern state of Manipur is an interesting one too. Here, according to some sources, BJP is likely to get into an alliance with Naga People’s Front (NPF). The current ruling party is likely to ditch its ally – Conrad Sangma’s National People’s Party (NPP) as it looks forward to get a second term in Manipur. In northeastern states, the electorate usually votes for the party in the assembly polls that is in power at the centre. It will be interesting to see how much the BJP can limit the anti-incumbency votes against its government, which it had formed for the first time in the state in 2017. Congress continues to put its trust in former Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh, who has been in power from 2002 to 2017. But now at 73, most experts think that he has passed his prime. One important factor that everyone must keep an eye on, is the “Meitei interest”.
As these five states gear up for the election, it is prudent to point out that the post-poll scene with new political equations and realignments may prove to be no less decisive than the pre-poll scenario in determining its outcome.