2013 budget goal still viable

The government originally targetted a balanced budget by 2010. It abandoned this as the global fiscal crisis worsened, and blew past the P250-billion cap for 2009 given lackluster revenues and the need to pump-prime the economy. The 2008 shortfall, in comparison, was just P68.1 billion, less than 1% of GDP.

Official full-year fiscal results for 2009 are expected to be released later this month.

The deficit cap for 2010 has been set at P293 billion. Succeeding annual goals set in the report are as follows: P180.5 billion or 2% of GDP in 2011 and P98.8 billion or 1% of GDP in 2012.

The fiscal road map, which pegs tax revenue growth of as much as 14.6% of GDP to P1.44 trillion in 2012 from 12.4% or P967.4 billion in 2009, can be adopted by the next administration, presidential economic adviser and Albay governor Jose Ma. Clemente S. Salceda said.

From P830 billion this year, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is expected to earn over P1 billion in 2012. The Bureau of Customs, meanwhile, has been set a 2012 goal of P385.2 billion compared to this year’s target of P275.7 billion.

Expenditures, meanwhile, were put at P1.68 billion for 2012, up from this year’s program of P1.57 billion.

“The figures are something that they (the next administration) can start with,” Mr. Salceda said in a telephone interview yesterday, adding that there may be no formal presentation of the targets to the next administration as there is no tradition that requires the exiting government to do so.

Filipinos will troop to the polls on May 10 to choose a new set of leaders whose terms start in July.

“All I am trying to show is that the budget can be balanced in 2013,” Mr. Salceda said, although the revenue program contained in the report does not provide a scenario for that year.

He will address representatives of business groups today as part of government efforts to convey to various sectors Mrs. Arroyo’s legacy as president.

Among those expected to join the briefing in Malacañang, he said, are officials of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc., and the American Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines. (abs-cbn)

Mr. Salceda’s presentation, sent to reporters ahead of the meeting, claims the country’s economic performance has been better than its regional peers, with the Philippines among the few which posted growth despite the global economic downturn.

The presentation likewise highlights that most economic indicators have improved significantly during the Arroyo presidency.

For instance, it notes that gross international reserves (GIR) hit a record high of $45.4 billion as of January, that average economic growth of 4.86% during 2001-2008 was higher than in previous administrations, and that the period’s average inflation of 5.37% was also the lowest.

Mr. Salceda claimed that as the economy performed “better than expected,” the business process outsourcing sector contributed about $6 billion from practically none before 2001 and that tourist arrivals grew to almost four million compared to 2.15 million in 1998.

Foreign investments, though lower compared to levels that other Asian economies received, remained resilient amid the crisis, he said.

But Mr. Salceda admitted that despite the economic gains, poverty incidence remains high with data from the National Statistical Coordination Board showing that there were 27.6 billion poor Filipinos in 2006, up from 23.84 billion in 2003.

He also cited a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey wherein self-rated poverty was pegged at 51% of the population as of September 2009. Latest SWS poll data show self-rated poverty as improving slightly to 46% as of December 2009.

“Of course we can’t hide [the poverty situation in the country]. That is because of structural constraints [where economic gains do not reach the poor] and also population growth,” Mr. Salceda said.